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Sohini Mondal

Incyte Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

Valued at $14.5 billion by market cap, Incyte Corporation (INCY) is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in innovative treatments for hematology/oncology and autoimmune diseases. Based in Wilmington, Delaware, the company's portfolio includes notable treatments like Jakafi and Monjuvi, addressing a range of complex medical conditions.

Shares of this specialty drugmaker have underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. INCY has risen marginally during this period, contrasting with the S&P 500 Index's ($SPXrobust rally of 28.1%. In 2024, INCY shares are up 2.5%, lagging behind SPX's 17.3% gain on a YTD basis.

Zooming in further, INCY's performance lags behind the Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF (IDNA), which has recorded gains of 15.7% over the past 52 weeks and a 7.6% increase on a YTD basis.

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Incyte has underperformed due to concerns about declining sales after Jakafi lost exclusivity and broader market turbulence affecting its stock performance. Moreover, despite revenue exceeding forecasts, the stock dipped after its Q2 earnings release on Jul. 30 due to a substantial loss of $444.6 million, or $2.04 per share, which missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations. Additionally, the company’s decision to discontinue the development of five cancer therapies further raised concerns.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect INCY's EPS to decline 75.1% year over year to $0.67 per share. The company's earnings surprise history is mixed. It met the consensus estimates in one of the last four quarters while missing on three other occasions. 

The consensus rating among the 21 analysts covering the stock is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings, 11 “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”

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This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, with no “Strong Sell” ratings on the stock. 

On Aug. 18, Citi analyst David Lebowitz raised Incyte's price target to $92 and maintained a “Buy” rating following positive Phase 3 inMIND trial results for Monjuvi and the recent approval of Niktimvo for chronic graft-versus-host disease. This newly raised price target implies a potential upside of 42.9% from the current price. The mean price target of $72.22 represents a premium of 12.2% to INCY's current levels. 

On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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