The nine-year long marriage between the Las Vegas Raiders and Derek Carr is officially over. After Carr had a no-trade clause in his contract and then vetoed recent trade talks between the Raiders and the Saints, he was released this week.
When reviewing Carr’s 2022 season, it’s surprising that the Raiders want to move on.
Carr performed at an average- to above-average level with what he had. He threw for 3,522 yards and 24 touchdowns and even made it into the Pro Bowl (as an alternate).
“Well… maybe this invitation got lost in the mail from past seasons but I’m going back to Pro Bowl #4. See you soon Vegas!” said Carr.
Even though Carr didn’t have the season he envisioned, he does have some qualities that teams could use in the 2023 season.
Aggressiveness
Over these last nine years, Carr hasn’t been most notable for much, but he does have a consistently accurate short ball and a pretty big arm when going deep.
His arm talent isn’t really given the credit it deserves.
This was last year in the wild-card game against the Cincinnati Bengals, where he threw a dart over the middle to Darren Waller who is tightly defended.
Unbelievable throw and catch! #RaiderNation #SuperWildCard
📺: #LVvsCIN on NBC
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/fWO7PXBoZi— NFL (@NFL) January 16, 2022
The reality is Carr lost a lot of his weapons, though the addition via trade of DaVante Adams was obviously a big deal. Henry Ruggs was averaging 19.5 yards per reception in 2021. Carr ended the 2021 season with the second most passing yards (1,795), and sixth highest EPA (57.60) on throws of 15+ yards or more.
Ruggs was quick off the line of scrimmage and could get open deep using his speed, same with their boundary receiver, Jones, who was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
51-YARD BOMB 💣
Carr 🤝 Ruggs
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/tOxBMS2E12
— ESPN (@espn) October 5, 2021
This was all a part of Carr’s game. Going deep.
Yes, they acquired one of the best, if not, the best receiver in the game in Adams, but he’s not going to make up for an entire unit of players that Carr gained rapport with. Adams was averaging 15.2 yards per reception in 2022, which is the highest in his career.
Throwing deep is Carr’s aggressive playstyle. Sam Hoppen from 4for4football took Next Gen Stats from tight windows and average depth of target; Carr was one of the most aggressive quarterbacks in the league in the 2022 season.
This past season, Carr did not adjust his playstyle to cater to his new teammates. He tied for the lead in the NFL (with Josh Allen) with the highest average depth per target this year, 11.0. He also lead the NFL in ‘intended air yards’ in the fourth quarter: 1,524. He ended in sixth in actual air yards with 563 and an EPA of -25.61. The only starting QB with a lower EPA in the fourth quarter was Justin Herbert at -26.97.
Carr also did not receive much help from his supporting cast. His offensive line allowed the second most pressures in the first quarters of games, with 51. His defense was fifth highest in total yards given up per game, 365.6, and seventh in total points, 418.
Carr is an average quarterback, but that is a lot better than some of these starters around the league.
Derek Carr and Jimmy G aren’t the same caliber of “mid”.
You’re not watching games if that’s your opinion of the two.
Carr makes big time, wow throws all the time. Plus he’s accurate.
Jimmy G hits big plays that are schemed up and wide open.
Watch the film #Jets pic.twitter.com/MAHnVRLai1
— Luke Grant (@LukeGrant7) February 15, 2023
Looking ahead
When it comes to Carr’s overall play in the 2022 season, he ended the year as a different player than how he started. Doug Farrar pulled the numbers in his breakdown of Carr, after the week 16 game:
- In Weeks 1-11, Carr completed 217 of 348 passes (62.4%) for 2,435 yards (7.0 yards per attempt), 15 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 91.6.
- Since Week 12, Carr has completed 88 of 154 passes (57.15) for 1,087 yards (7,1 YPA), nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 74.2.
Halfway through the season, the writing was on the wall for Carr. He was on his way out and the number reflected that. But in the right situation, he can be the player that he showed in the first 10 weeks of the season.
There are a few teams that could benefit from having Carr as their quarterback. Just to name a few, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans; but his best fit might be the New York Jets.
Right now, the Jets are in desperate need of a quarterback. They recently hired former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing as their passing game coordinator. Downing has a relationship with Carr as he worked with the Oakland Raiders back in the 2015-17 season.
When Carr played some of his best ball.
Carr was named to the Pro Bowl all three of those years and the third runner up for most valuable player in 2016. In that year, Carr threw for 3,937 yards, 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. The Jets also have Garrett Wilson who is one of the top receivers in the league, and the 13th pick in this upcoming draft, and they may be expected to take a wide receiver with that pick, per Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft.
Of course, if they decide to keep Corey Davis, and Denzel Mims, they can battle it out to see who works best on the outside. Carr will need a boundary receiver who can win on the outside, if they want to be successful. Davis averaged 16.8 yards per reception last year, so he seems like the best fit. Receivers tend to have down years when their quarterback play isn’t consistent.
The Jets also have a slightly higher rated offensive line compared to the Raiders, according to PFF, and their defense is one of the best units in the league!
It seems like a no-brainer for the Jets to target Carr. At this point, going after Aaron Rodgers is a shot in the dark.
Literally.
