The war in Sudan is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis: hundreds of thousands of people have been killed, 14 million have been displaced, and famine looms.
But the conflict has been called the “forgotten war” because so little international attention has been paid to it.
Tom Gardner, an Africa correspondent at The Economist who visited Sudan last month, says this is partly the result of “compassion fatigue” amid so many conflicts, and because Gaza and Ukraine feel less remote to many people.
But it’s also due to the fact there’s “no clear good guy and bad guy” – and no clear pathway to a solution.
“It’s such a messy and complicated picture,” says Gardner.
The conflict erupted in the middle of 2023 but has its roots in the 2019 overthrow of Omar al-Bashir, the dictator who ruled Sudan for nearly three decades.
A transitional government took power but a military coup in 2021 ignited tensions, leading to civil war in 2023 when the national army, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), began fighting with the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Both sides have been accused of atrocities.
The United Nations said the RSF carried out ethnically targeted killings, widespread sexual violence and enforced disappearances when it took over El Fasher in the Darfur region last year. The UN said the attacks showed “hallmarks of genocide” and satellite images showed enormous bloodstains visible from space.
The UN is now warning that a second massacre could be looming in the western city of El Obeid, where the RSF is on the back foot.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk recently warned that civilians were at grave risk in El Obeid.
“Let this be a stark warning to the world of an impending human rights disaster and worsening humanitarian situation,” he said. “The states with influence have the duty to exercise it now to stop this madness in its tracks.”
The capital, Khartoum, has been almost completely destroyed – on a scale seen in Mosul in Iraq, Aleppo in Syria, and Gaza, Gardner says.
At the Kosti refugee camp, which Gardner also visited, the conditions are “unbelievably squalid,” and hunger is rife.
“I’ve been to a lot of camps like these across Africa … and I would say I’ve never seen conditions like that,” he says. “People were living in ragged tents, basically just a blanket and some sticks.”
So what are the prospects for a negotiated ceasefire or another end to this war?
Gardner says there have been glimmers of hope previously that have been dashed, but there are some factors that might lead to a breakthrough.
For starters, the rainy season is approaching in the south, where some of the worst fighting is. This might lead to a lull in the conflict where both sides could come to the table, and at least a temporary ceasefire.
The second reason, Gardner says, is that the SAF has been gaining the upper hand, compared with just a few weeks ago.
If it took advantage of its relative strength, and its foreign backers – Saudi Arabia and Turkey – encouraged it to agree to a ceasefire, it could bring about an end to the fighting.
The third factor comes from the broader regional context. Sudan has about 800km of coastline on the Red Sea, which has become more important as an international waterway since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – especially for Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis are particularly concerned about the security of that waterway and are stepping up their diplomatic activities, Gardner says.
“They really want to advance a solution” and that will focus minds in the United Arab Emirates, which has backed the RSF and is in regional competition with Saudi Arabia.
Gardner says both sides may come to the conclusion that they have a shared interest in the security of the Red Sea and that interest might be best served through a negotiated settlement.
This Saturday episode of the Detail is made with funding from the Peter M. Acland Foundation.
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