With Prime Minister Narendra Modi hitting the campaign trail in Karnataka, and the Congress also upping the ante with extensive tour programmes by All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Priyanka Vadra Gandhi, the poll fray looks like a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) versus Congress field but, in the end, the decision may boil down to who prevails in the Congress versus Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) turf of southern Karnataka. The Congress’ numbers will be inversely proportionate to the JD(S) according to the patchwork of support bases through the State.
For both the Congress and the BJP, the prospects of gaining a full majority in the Assembly are hinged on southern Karnataka, where the third party in the State, the JD(S), holds on tenaciously to its support base. For the BJP, things would be good if the JD(S) does well, for example, as it did in the 2006 Assembly polls, where the regional party got 58 seats and formed a coalition government with the BJP, the first stint in power for the saffron party in Karnataka. For the Congress, the JD(S) is competition for both the Vokkaliga and minority votes, with both communities present in large numbers in southern Karnataka.
The BJP, which has till now failed to gain significant traction in the area, is fielding Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for campaigning in the area, as the Adichunchunagiri Mutt, the foremost mutt for the Vokkaliga community, is part of the Nath Sampradaya, the same as the Gorakhnath Peeth, which is headed by Mr. Adityanath.
