With Prime Minister Narendra Modi hitting the campaign trail in Karnataka, and the Congress also upping the ante with extensive tour programmes by All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Priyanka Vadra Gandhi, the poll fray looks like a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) versus Congress field but, in the end, the decision may boil down to who prevails in the Congress versus Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) turf of southern Karnataka. The Congress’ numbers will be inversely proportionate to the JD(S) according to the patchwork of support bases through the State.
For both the Congress and the BJP, the prospects of gaining a full majority in the Assembly are hinged on southern Karnataka, where the third party in the State, the JD(S), holds on tenaciously to its support base. For the BJP, things would be good if the JD(S) does well, for example, as it did in the 2006 Assembly polls, where the regional party got 58 seats and formed a coalition government with the BJP, the first stint in power for the saffron party in Karnataka. For the Congress, the JD(S) is competition for both the Vokkaliga and minority votes, with both communities present in large numbers in southern Karnataka.
The BJP, which has till now failed to gain significant traction in the area, is fielding Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for campaigning in the area, as the Adichunchunagiri Mutt, the foremost mutt for the Vokkaliga community, is part of the Nath Sampradaya, the same as the Gorakhnath Peeth, which is headed by Mr. Adityanath.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi is clocking his eighth visit to Mysuru since 2014. While the BJP’s push is strong, the ties of the mutts may not be enough to overcome old political loyalties in this area, accounting for 60 seats, and stretching from Chamarjnagar to Bengaluru Rural.
Outside the Adichunchunagiri Mutt, Thimme Gowda is taking the breeze with friends. The 49-year-old farmer, a firm JD(S) supporter says this time too it will be a JD(S) versus Congress contest in the belt. While loyal to the Gowda family, he admits that former Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy had been guilty of “ushering in the BJP” to rule the State. “If only he had handed over power to Yeddyurappa during their alliance in 2006, the BJP would have been exposed soon and not got the sympathy vote of being denied a share in power when their turn came,” Mr. Thimme Gowda said. The statement is interesting in the context of the JD(S) successively going into an alliance with either the BJP or the Congress.
In the constituency of Varuna, from which former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is contesting, the Congress has been active in campaigning, especially on the legal journey of the the reservation policy announced by the Bommai government for increasing reservations for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST), and the quota within quota thereof. At a housing colony for the SC community, Rama Kumara, supervising the construction of his new dwelling, is up to date on the course of the hearings on the reservation case in the Supreme Court. “The announcement was alright, but the government’s stance in court is not encouraging any faith,” Mr. Kumara said.
For Shakuntala Kumari, in Ramgiri village, close to where the old Bollywood blockbuster Sholay was shot, her status as part of one of two Lingayat families in her village, otherwise dominated by STs, the vote is for BJP, now and for the 2024 General Elections. “We will vote for the BJP, for Narendra Modi, in every poll,” Ms. Kumari said.
The keen contest in southern Karnataka is therefore distinguished by the fact that not only is it a fight between the Congress and the JD(S) directly, but that it’s the BJP which is the nascent third force. The implications of that may well decide who enters the Vidhan Soudha with a majority.
