As the conflict in Gaza neared its fifth month, the wanton death and destruction wreaked upon its Palestinian residents spurred major peace initiatives that brought together intelligence officials from the U.S. and Israel engaging with counterparts from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and the Prime Minister of Qatar. To push the process forward, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also embarked on his fifth visit to the region mainly to convey to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the need to accept a ceasefire and allow increased humanitarian assistance to reach the beleaguered people in Gaza.
Peace negotiations
A peace plan emerged in Paris at the end of January following talks among the intelligence chiefs and the Qatari Prime Minister. It called for a two-month cease fire when the remaining hostages held by Hamas would be released in return for a several Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody. Hamas fine-tuned this proposal by calling for a 135-day truce when the release of hostages would take place in three stages, along with an increased flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. This would be followed by a full cease fire and the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza.
Mr. Blinken carried this proposal to Mr. Netanyahu on February 7. Within a day, Mr. Netanyahu rejected it, terming the terms set by Hamas “delusional”. Mr. Blinken later said he had told Mr. Netanyahu that “the daily toll…on innocent civilians remains too high” and had insisted that delivery of life-saving assistance should not be blocked. President Joe Biden said from Washington that Israel’s military campaign had been “over the top” and called for a sovereign Palestinian state.
Mr. Netanyahu paid no heed to U.S. advice: he insisted that his war aim remained “total victory” — the total destruction of Hamas and the re-occupation of Gaza by Israeli armed forces till all hostile elements had been flushed out. He assured his American interlocutors that “we are nearly there with total victory”.
However, it appears that the peace negotiators have still not given up: as Mr. Blinken left for home, he said the Hamas proposal “creates space” for an agreement to be reached, even as a Hamas team reached Cairo a day after Mr. Blinken’s departure to discuss arrangements relating to prisoner exchanges and movement of humanitarian assistance. These expectations are perhaps unrealistic: on February 12, Israeli special forces rescued two hostages in Gaza, convincing Mr. Netanyahu that the remaining hostages could be freed through military force.
Mr. Netanyahu is regarded as Israel’s most wily, self-centred and ruthless politician, with the capacity to turn even the most adverse circumstances to his advantage. In December 2022, he formed a government with hard right-wing elements. He included in his cabinet Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir who represent groups that exhibit the most visceral animosity for Arabs and reject any possibility of compromise with the Palestinians. Given his dependence on right-wing support, Mr. Netanyahu has consistently rejected the ‘two-state solution’.
The Gaza war is perhaps Mr. Netanyahu’s greatest challenge in his long career. He is viewed by most Israelis as responsible for the failures that facilitated Hamas’ brutal attacks on October 7 last year. While the hard right in his Cabinet rejects any accommodation with Hamas, his war cabinet includes opposition moderates such as former army chiefs Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot who have gained considerable political standing during the ongoing conflict. More seriously for Mr. Netanyahu, if his government were to fall, he faces the prospect of immediate arrest and court proceedings for corruption and abuse of office.
Thus, his hardline posture in response to peace initiatives is possibly influenced by concerns relating to his personal rather than national interests. A major source of his complacency is his shrewd assessment of the limits of the pressure that the U.S. can bring to bear upon him. In the forthcoming presidential elections, Mr. Biden faces a formidable challenge from the resurgent Donald Trump. Again, given the total backing for Israel that animates most Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate, Mr. Biden has no capacity to make unacceptable demands of the Israeli Prime Minister. Hence, Mr. Netanyahu has disdainfully shrugged off all the advice addressed to him by the U.S. President and his Secretary of State. Israeli reports suggest that Mr. Netanyahu would like to prolong the Gaza conflict until Mr. Trump, his close friend and benefactor, is elected to the White House.
The Saudi Arabia card
The one card that the U.S. is hoping to use to push Mr. Netanyahu towards a cease fire is the prospect of normalisation of ties with Saudi Arabia once a sovereign Palestinian state is conceded. But Mr. Netanyahu believes he can get around this with a United Nations Security Council resolution recognising a Palestinian state; this would trigger normalisation of ties with Saudi Arabia without Israel having to actually give formal shape to the resolution. This may be misplaced optimism: the kingdom has recently reiterated that normalisation of ties with Israel would follow the setting up of a sovereign Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Meanwhile, as Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu struggle for their survival on the chess board of domestic politics, scores of Palestinians are dying daily under the lethal barrage of Israeli firepower.
Talmiz Ahmad is a former diplomat.
