In Brazil's Crowded Road to October's Presidential Election, Lula Still the Man to Beat

(From L) European Council President Antonio Costa (L), Brazil's First Lady Janja Lula da Silva and Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speak before a family photograph during a gala dinner as part of the G7 summit, in Evian, eastern France, on June 16, 2026. A G7 summit is set to take place June 15 to 17 in the French town of Evian-les-Bains near Switzerland and it will be attended by country leaders as well as the EU's foreign policy chief and ministers from Brazil, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. (Credit: Photo by Ludovic MARIN / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)

Brazil votes for president on October 4, and for months the contest looked like it would settle into a straight fight between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. That basic shape hasn't changed. What has changed is how lopsided it now looks — and the reason traces back to a single leaked recording about a movie that was never supposed to become a political liability.

Lula's Bid for a Fourth Term