In the suburban Melbourne electorate of Aston, many people are far more concerned about how they’ll feed their families and afford their mortgage repayments than the unexpected return of federal politics.
Despite relatively few campaign signs in the area, the high-stakes byelection in Aston – triggered by the resignation in February of the former Liberal cabinet minister Alan Tudge – is just weeks away. It’s been cast as a test of the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, in a state where the Liberal party has fared poorly in recent elections.
But many also see the 1 April vote as the first electoral judgment of how well the Albanese government has responded to the cost of living crisis gripping Australia. If Labor wins, it will be the first time the party has claimed the seat in 33 years.
Aston – an electorate peppered with shopping strips and commuter highways – is classic mortgage-belt territory. According to the Bureau of Statistics, 41% of residents here have a mortgage, higher than the national average of 35%. In 2021, almost three-quarters of mortgage holders spent more than 30% of their household income on repayments. That figure is now much higher thanks to 10 consecutive interest rate rises.
Inflation has hit hard in Aston, with several long-term residents saying they’re struggling to afford food. Grocery prices increased almost 10% in the year to December 2022 and while costs have dropped slightly since then, they’re still causing anxiety.
“We’re spending up to $500 a week just on groceries at the moment,” says Jayde, mother of three, while having a coffee with her friend, Kim, in Ferntree Gully. Both women declined to provide their last names for privacy reasons.
“We were just talking about different strategies we have to try saving money, like travelling to different shops for cheaper items. But then we’ve got to be careful about the petrol we use. If we use too much, that’ll defeat the purpose.”
‘It’s the double-edged sword’
Edward McInerney, a local mortgage broker has seen the effect on family budgets. He says $500 grocery bills have become common.
“The cost of living is having a very big impact here and mortgage rates are a very, very big discussion point,” McInerney says.
His colleague Nathan Xenophontos says clients were stressed about what will happen when they come off fixed-rate mortgages later this year. Three years ago, no one expected living expenses to rise this much – but now many were already struggling to pay for petrol, food and electricity, Xenophontos says.
“That’s the problem. It’s not so much the rates or repayments alone, it’s the double-edged sword of living expenses going up, too.”
Renters are also struggling in Aston. In the suburb of Boronia, the median rent price for a house increased by 8% in the last year. In Wantirna, prices are up 10%.
Dani and Josh, a young couple who are expecting their first child, say there was a lack of affordable housing in the area. The cost of living and housing will influence how they vote next month.
“It’s pretty shocking and frustrating. I’m working as hard as I possibly can and then just trying to pay for everything. It’s difficult for us as a young couple with a family on the way,” Josh says.
Back at the cafe, Kim says she expected the financial pressure would only get worse in coming months.
“I’m absolutely crapping myself about a rent rise coming up because my landlord might want to offset the mortgage rate rises,” Kim says.
Her friend, Jayde, says her family was now considering whether to withdraw their children from after-school sport sessions to make ends meet.
“Our mortgage has probably gone up $100 a month and that’s tough. We have a daughter with special needs and we struggle to get her to therapy, let alone another daughter who does gymnastics and swimming. It’s almost come to the point where we’re thinking, ‘Can we actually do these extra activities?’ They’re costly.”
‘They’re getting very, very anxious’
Most people Guardian Australia spoke to in Aston said cost of living pressure would influence their vote in the byelection, but declined to say how.
But these economic anxieties are something candidates for both major parties are aware of and they’re shaping their narratives to suit.
“I spoke to a lot of different people, and some people who voted Liberals most of their lives. And you know what? They told me that they’d be voting Labor because they were worried about the cost of living,” the Labor candidate, Mary Doyle, said last month while campaigning alongside the prime minister, Anthony Albanese.
Victorian Liberals have handpicked Roshena Campbell, a Melbourne city councillor as their best chance of retaining the seat.
While campaigning with Dutton in Bayswater last week, Campbell said the cost of living was crippling local families.
“They’re getting very, very anxious that the Labor government has no plan – and I’m going to be a champion for that,” Campbell said.
There are other issues on voters’ minds, too: long-promised road upgrades, local infrastructure projects and government services. And then there’s the legacy of the former MP, who held the seat for 13 years.
Tudge, battling several controversies, faced a negative swing of 7% at the last federal election on a two-candidate preferred basis, reducing his margin in the seat to a slender 2.8%.
He has faced intense scrutiny over his handling of the robodebt debacle while a minister in the Morrison government, including an appearance before the royal commission last week, and because of an extramarital relationship with one of his former advisers, Rachelle Miller.
Last year the federal government paid Miller $650,000 in a settlement for hurt, distress and humiliation she alleges she suffered while working for Tudge and another Liberal frontbencher, Michaelia Cash. No admission of liability was made by the government. Tudge has repeatedly and categorically denied Miller’s allegations.
Given the big swing against Tudge less than a year ago, Liberal strategists may be hoping voters remain focused on cost of living challenges, rather the scandals of the past.
