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McClatchy Washington Bureau
McClatchy Washington Bureau
Politics
David Catanese

Impeachment is scrambling 2020 campaigning. Iowans don't think it will matter much

DES MOINES, Iowa _ Cydney Kelley drove two hours southwest from Cedar Falls on a frigid Sunday morning to a middle school gymnasium here to see Elizabeth Warren _ perhaps her last opportunity to catch the presidential candidate before the state's February caucuses.

"I'm worried she won't be making it back to our area since she'll be in D.C. for most of the next two weeks," said Kelley, who is still deciding between Warren and another senator, Amy Klobuchar. "If she comes next weekend, she'll probably only be here a day or two."

The impeachment trial of President Donald Trump is forcing 2020 Democratic campaigns _ and voters _ to adjust their plans for the final two-week stretch to the Iowa caucuses. The Senate proceedings, which got underway Tuesday, threaten to sideline a trio of major contenders from the campaign trail: Sens. Bernie Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar.

It's a unique predicament in the run-up to the lead-off nominating contest that's known for late-breaking swings of momentum. Two of the three most recent reputable polls show the top four candidates separated by only single digits, and surveys indicate more than half of caucusgoers remain persuadable, adding to the volatility.

But while campaigns have drawn up contingency plans, Iowa Democrats aren't overly worried about the void. After all, they've been living with these faces for months, if not years, by now.

"At this point, we have political fatigue in Iowa, I would say," said Jill Gilbert, a devout Warren supporter from West Des Moines who says she still gets calls from the campaign even though she's fully committed to the Massachusetts senator.

The impeachment trial is scheduled to run six days a week from 1 p.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern time. That means instead of spending their days fielding questions from voters and snapping selfies, these candidates will be stuck in jury duty on the Senate floor, largely seated in silence.

The senators' campaigns plan to deploy surrogates and possibly utilize tele-town halls and digital livestreams to make up for their candidates' absence. Warren is tapping Julian Castro and his brother, Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, for events in Iowa, and Michigan Rep. Andy Levin along with Massachusetts Reps. Joe Kennedy and Jim McGovern for stops in New Hampshire.

Sanders has New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez slated for events in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids and Ames through the weekend.

Klobuchar is enlisting her husband and daughter to visit party meetings and colleges and universities. Minnesota Reps. Angie Craig and Dean Phillips along with gold medalist USA Curling coach Phill Drobnick will also host house parties on her behalf.

But campaign heads are also exploring the feasibility of making quick jaunts into the state in the evenings that would allow them to return to Washington by the next morning.

Sanders, for instance, has already scheduled a rally at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls on Wednesday at 8 p.m. Central time, potentially chartering a private plane to expedite the flight.

While at first blush the restrictions would appear to benefit Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg _ two top-tier candidates who don't currently have a day job _ each competitive campaign is already leaning heavily on the organizational muscle they've spent months building up for the final push, focusing on training their precinct captains and re-contacting potential caucusgoers who have showed up to an event, but not committed.

"The organization will run just fine without the candidates here," said Barb Hackworth, a Warren precinct captain in Jasper County. "There have been so many Elizabeth events without Elizabeth here."

Candidate visits are always optimal. But with or without the candidate in town, it pays to be innovative.

On Saturday evening, with Sanders in New Hampshire, his Iowa campaign organized a caucus training event around a local soccer club powered by the area's immigrant communities.

Dividing a high school gymnasium in half between English- and Spanish-speaking players, campaign organizers explained caucus procedures and how for the first time, three Des Moines mosques would be used as satellite locations to accommodate language and logistical barriers.

"You don't have to be religious to go to the mosque and stand with Bosnians," said Bernina Smajlovic, a Sanders organizer and Bosnian refugee told the players. "We've got to show up and show our voting power."

After she distributed cards with caucus information and fielded questions, the attendees played five-a-side indoor soccer, with many sporting "TioBernie" T-shirts.

Additionally, candidate event crowds don't always properly demonstrate support anyway.

Joe Sutton, 22, sat in the second row of a Biden town hall in Indianola over the weekend purely out of curiosity. He said he's already committed to Sanders.

"It is cool to be at these events, but I don't think a campaign loses traction if I don't see them in person as much," he said of Sanders' potential absence. "So much of politics is moved by Twitter, Facebook or whatever."

The sheer gravity of the impeachment trial and its day-to-day developments also offers seamless opportunities for senators to book themselves on prime-time cable news programs to offer their reactions to millions of Americans, and potentially thousands of Iowans, in just a few minutes.

"They may end up getting more time on Rachel Maddow and those guys in the evening," said Bret Nilles, the Democratic chairman of Linn County, who is neutral in the race. "The senators have been out here an awful lot. We're getting close enough now that I don't think a couple more trips through is going to make a difference."

Nilles is projecting that the sustained focus on Trump's impeachment will energize caucus turnout come Feb. 3.

"People are paying attention to whether the Senate can do anything," he said. "And they're going to want a voice on it."

Back inside the Des Moines middle school gymnasium, Kelley said part of the reason she's narrowed her decision to Warren and Klobuchar is because each has shown a steeliness that signals they won't back down to Trump.

She concluded that Warren could probably more effectively debate Trump than any of the other candidates. That's why she's fine if Warren has to be in Washington, especially if it's in service of removing the president.

Seated next to her, Kelley's mother, Linda, smiled and declared, "We want her there!"

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