Expected goals, or xG as it is sometimes better known, is one of the more polarising statistics used in modern football. It splits opinion as some fans swear by its use while others find it largely pointless – and there a lot of people who fall somewhere down the middle.
Put simply, it works out the frequency and quality of shots a team has had in a game by scoring each effort between 0.01 xG and 1 xG. A shot with a lower xG signifies that it was a tougher chance whilst a tap in from a couple of yards out will be given a much higher xG.
As far as Leeds United are concerned, it is a stat that would have haunted them this season if they had been relegated. Only eight teams in the Premier League – the ‘Big Six’ and Brentford – created more xG than them throughout the duration of the campaign (as per Understat ) which, if nothing else, highlights the lack of a prolific number nine.
Read more: Alternative table that highlights Leeds United's most crucial results this season
Patrick Bamford’s extended absence and the reluctance to use Joe Gelhardt despite the lack of suitable alternatives was almost detrimental to the club’s Premier League status. The decision not to use the January transfer window to source cover, even just on a temporary basis, was one that came back to bite Marcelo Bielsa as it was a key factor behind his downfall.
The end-of-season xG also suggests that Leeds conceded more goals than they should have done as they conceded a staggering 79 goals from an ‘xG conceded’ total of 71.31. While that lays some blame at Illan Meslier’s door for conceding more goals than he should have done, it feels extremely harsh to criticise the young Frenchman too much purely for the sheer volume of shots he faced all season.
On a game-by-game basis, the xG metric claims that Leeds should have won more matches than they ultimately won as they created more high-quality chances than their opponents more often than the points tally suggests. Based on purely on xG, which equates to xPTS (Expected Points), the Whites would have finished 12 th in the Premier League, more than five points clear of the relegation zone.
That shows why it is essential those in charge of recruitment at Elland Road steer clear of making the same transfer mistakes they have made in the last two transfer windows. To ensure Leeds are adequately stocked to compete at the levels they deserve to be competing at, there needs to be sufficient investment in the squad.
That will require reinforcements being brought both offensively and defensively during a summer that feels huge for Leeds given this season’s close relegation call.
