Imagine the Principality Stadium brimming to its capacity with 74,500 passionate rugby fans. It’s a lot of people, but a quick bit of arithmetic here, times that by 6.5. You should have arrived at a figure - rounded down - of 484,000.
So what, you might be thinking. But that is the number of working age people in Wales - 16-64- who are currently are not seeking employment; or put it another way are not able to help firms expand and provide much needed workplace related taxes to fund UK and Welsh government spending.
The economically inactive include those on long-term sick and students not working. Of course many people unable to work on health grounds, and those who have opted out of the workforce for other reasons, have worked in the past and contributed significantly in income tax and national insurance contributions.
According to the Office for National Statistics for Q3 of this year - June to August - the number of economically inactive people in Wales represented 25.3% of the working age population. For the UK as whole the rate is 21.7%. For England it is 21.3% and Scotland 21.6%. Of the nations and regions of the UK it is only higher in Northern Ireland at 27.8% and the north-east of England at 25.5%.
The economic inactivity level is Wales was up 38,000 on the previous quarter - March to May - and 52,000 on the year.
The issue in Wales is graphically illustrated by the fact despite having only 5% of the UK population, Wales accounted for more than 20% of the net rise in economic inactivity for the whole of the UK over the last year - representing some 52,000 of the total net increase to 226,000.
Only Scotland, down 20,000 , the south-west of England, down 7,000 and Yorkshire and the Humber, down 36,000, experienced year-on-year declines. For the UK as a whole there are nearly nine million people of working age not seeking work. Economic inactivity level in Wales have been consistently higher than the UK average for decades.
While there is some positive news in that unemployment in Wales, at 3.3%, is lower than the UK rate of 3.5%, its stubbornly high and growing economic inactivity rate can been seen as a significant drag on the economy.
The impact of the pandemic has seen hundreds of thousands of those below retirement age in the UK leaving the workforce - the so called ‘Great Resignation’. The question is will they return? Some believe that the cost of living crisis could see some of those who initially calculated they could retire early on financial grounds - many in their 50s- having to reconsider. However, growing NHS waiting lists, exacerbated by the pandemic, could make it harder, in the short-term at least - to reduce economic inactivity.
Recent ONS figures show that amongst those who left their previous job due to a health-related condition (stress, mental health, illness, or disability), the proportion on an NHS waiting list has increased to 35%. Those who had left work since the pandemic and had not returned were more likely to have a physical or mental health condition or illness (51%) than those that left since the pandemic and returned to work (43%).
Is there a political blame game here? The Welsh Government has devolved powers over health and economic development - although its overall budget, via the Barnett Formula, is defined by UK Government departmental spending - but welfare is not devolved.
On the rise in economic inactivity in Wales, the Welsh Conservatives' Shadow Health Minister, Russell George MS, said: I am not surprised to hear that the figures on long-term sickness are worse in Wales than most of the other nations and regions of the UK.
“Wales has the longest NHS waiting lists in the UK with 1-in-4 patients waiting over a year for treatment, compared with 1-in-20 in England and 1-in-14 in Scotland.
“There are a vast number of policies that the Welsh Conservatives have urged the Labour Government in Cardiff Bay to adopt in order to address Wales’ long-running problem of long-term sickness, including on waiting lists, mental health and occupational health.
“It is essential that we develop a clear, clinically-led plan for the Welsh NHS to clear the waiting list backlog that has deteriorated during the pandemic, utilising cross-border and independent facilities, as well as a rapid rollout of more Covid-light surgical hubs nationally to speed up treatment.
“Welsh Conservatives believe that there is an opportunity to consolidate and update existing legislation in Wales, as well as deliver significant improvements needed to ensure that parity between mental and physical health is achieved.
“Occupational Health is also extremely important in helping people back into work after recovering from long term sickness absence, as well as maintaining a healthy workforce.
“Expanding the role of occupational therapists as part of wrap around care to maintain patient independence and review access to the Disabled Facilities Grant so that housing plays its fullest role in health and social care is vital.”
Jonathan Boys, labour market economist with professional body for HR and people development, the CIPD, said there is a worrying continuation of the trend towards increased inactivity due to long term sickness.
He added: “This requires urgent attention from employers and government to address problems early on, to ensure people get the support they need and don’t fall out of the labour market entirely. The UK clearly has a problem with long-term sickness and employers and policymakers need to take this more seriously. Significantly improving workers’ access to occupational health services and advice and support for employers on occupational health issues affecting staff could have a big impact over time.
"The provision of timely access to occupational health services to workers in their 20s and 30s who suffer from back pain or other musculoskeletal problems would mean that steps can be taken to reduce the likelihood of these conditions becoming chronic, affecting people’s health and their ability to work.
A spokesman for the Welsh Government, said; “Since devolution, we have reduced the gap in employment rates between Wales and the UK. Reducing this gap is of great importance for both economic and important non-economic outcomes, including health and well-being
“Our aim is to make Wales an even more attractive prospect for more people and businesses. As part of our economic mission, we’re using the levers we have to narrow the skills divide, support better jobs and tackle poverty
“Our new plan for employability and skills prioritises people most in need of help. This includes supporting people to stay in work and those further away from the Labour market to find employment. Our young person’s guarantee offers everyone under 25 training, work or education, with the successful Working Wales service at the heart of our new approach.”
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