The 2022 college football season kicks off on Saturday and lucky for us week zero includes some intense and very important Big Ten conference play. Before the season is in full swing, I wanted to provide a somewhat in-depth preview of what we can expect from the Illinois Fighting Illini.
I am not looking at the Fighting Illini from a state of whether are they good or not, but can they make me any money? Our friends at Tipico have provided a plethora of betting options for this season and this includes the season win totals futures. The Illinois win total currently sits at 4.5 wins.
The Good
The Illinois defense was actually solid last season and held opponents to -.031 EPA per pass, which ranked sixth in the Big Ten. The Fighting Illini were actually even bowl-eligible last season despite not receiving a bid and would have gotten a bid if not for losing four games by seven points or less.
The schedule is not great, but Illinois does get the benefit of switching Penn State with Indiana. It is pretty clear what Bret Bielema is trying to do to this program and he is a very good coach with a very good track record of succeeding.
It is hard to envision this Fighting Illini team taking a step back from last season and if they can continue to run the ball as effectively as last season then they may surprise some people. Mix that with the defense taking another likely step forward and we may have some wins.
The Bad
2021 marked Illinois’ tenth losing season in a row and in all likelihood they will hit 11 seasons in a row. The Fighting Illini were not good on offense last season as evidenced by their quality possessions rate of 36.9%, which was 119th in the country and they were 122nd in passing efficiency, averaging a 32.4% success rate. There is no reason to believe that this offense can be any better through the air.
The Bet
I am not trying to convince anyone that Illinois is good or bad, but we need to determine whether or not they can win more than 4.5 games. Let’s do the same exercise we did with Nebraska and put the games into three categories, likely wins, likely losses, and 50/50.
Likely Wins: Wyoming, Chattanooga
Likely Losses: Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, Northwestern
50/50: Indiana
I like the under here. The Illinois passing offense is horrendous and there are no signs of it getting better. The schedule is also brutal with eight bowl teams.
