The U.S. Supreme Court could rule as soon as Friday on whether President Trump’s tariff regime is unconstitutional. If the court strikes down his trade policies, it could jeopardize up to one-third of Trump’s newly proposed military budget, according to posts by the president on social media.
Trump said Wednesday on Truth Social that he wanted to increase U.S. military spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. “I would stay at the $1 Trillion number but, because of Tariffs, and the tremendous Income that they bring, amounts being generated, … we are able to easily hit the $1.5 Trillion Dollar number.”
Most observers, however, are expecting the court to strike down his tariff regime or at least curtail it. At oral arguments, the justices expressed skepticism that the White House has the power to impose taxes on trade without the permission of Congress under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
“The betting markets think there’s a high chance the White House loses its appeal and that could see a raft of tariffs—including so-called ‘reciprocal’ levies on the E.U., China and the rest of the world—struck down,” ING told its clients in an email seen by Fortune. Bettors on Kalshi give only a 29% chance of Trump’s tariffs surviving; it’s just 25% on Polymarket.
