The most dangerous moment of Keir Starmer’s premiership came just after lunchtime on Wednesday, when mutiny was the talk of the Commons tea room.
Anger is widespread across Labour – but it was at its most palpable among the party’s new MPs, as the Conservatives used a humble address to force the disclosure of the vetting documents and communications linked to Peter Mandelson, disgraced by his close association with Jeffrey Epstein.
“At about 2pm yesterday, if someone had pulled the trigger, we would have moved,” one 2024 intake MP said on Thursday. “No one dared. I think that says a lot.”
Another new MP said they had “contempt” for leadership contenders who had not taken their chance. “Sometimes in politics, it’s about leadership. We needed leadership.”
New MPs feel they are being tarnished by the same kind of sleaze that brought down the Conservatives, when they had believed that the Labour government would end that kind of politics. It was Labour who pioneered the use of humble address to disclose embarrassing private government communications.
“In the tea room during the debate, it was the first time I have heard people openly discussing candidates and challenges, not caring who heard,” one Labour source said.
But four MPs from the 2024 intake told the Guardian on Thursday they were beginning to believe that there was no candidate ready or even brave enough to trigger Starmer’s downfall. “If you are not brave enough to be first out of the traps, you don’t deserve to be prime minister,” one said.
Angela Rayner’s stock is higher after her intervention in the debate that saved the government from defeat over the release of the Mandelson documents. Wes Streeting has the most MPs willing to take a risk and back him. But both, MPs said, have issues that meant they could not make their move on Wednesday.
Rayner is waiting for the judgment of HMRC over unpaid stamp duty, the issue which caused her resignation. Streeting, who was at the launch of the NHS cancer plan, was absent at the critical moment – and had a close friendship with Mandelson that now looks like a significant liability. Allies of both insisted they had no intention of any move against Starmer.
“I just can’t see the cabinet going when it would topple the government and there’s no clear person to take over,” another Labour source said.
Several MPs on Thursday went public to suggest a change of leadership was needed – the leftwing MPs Rachael Maskell, John McDonnell and Barry Gardiner, as well as the Hull East MP Karl Turner, who is angry with Starmer’s reforms to jury trials.
But many once loyalist MPs said that the prime minister was in place now only because of the reluctance of his challengers. One senior MP said: “The biggest thing Keir has going for him right now is that there’s not an obvious successor. When we do change, there will have to be a bombastic moment so people notice.”
Starmer was also given an unlikely reprieve by the actions of the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who decided to extend the debate on the release of the Peter Mandelson files for another four hours.
Many MPs had been expecting to vote in the early afternoon. At that point, it was chaos. Many were likening the atmosphere to the fracking debate that ended Liz Truss’s premiership, with MPs in open defiance at the whips.
But by 7pm – when the vote came – anger was beginning to give way to exhaustion. A deal had been struck and the moment of peril was delayed, with the vote passed on the nod, rather than requiring a formal count. MPs credited the interventions not just of Rayner, but of the Treasury select committee chair, Meg Hillier, the victims minister, Jess Phillips, and the leader of the house, Alan Campbell, all of whom saw very early how high the risk of Commons defeat was.
Allies of Rayner said she had not been thinking about the leadership or a challenge when she acted – and stressed that nothing was possible until her tax investigation was finalised. “She just wanted to make sure the government did the right thing,” said one. “She is not going to be the one denouncing or agitating herself.”
But several MPs said they had been deeply frustrated at the malaise that appeared to be setting in, including among cabinet ministers. “We risked everything to stand for parliament, many of us left very important work or good careers behind, but no one is putting themselves on the line now,” one MP said.
Rayner was widely praised for her intervention, but several MPs said she would not provide the clean slate they believed was required. “I cannot see how the answer is someone who was only recently forced to resign herself,” one new MP said.
Some said they were now beginning to seriously consider backing the defence minister Al Carns, a former Royal Marine, should he decide to stand. Carns is currently in the Arctic.
“I don’t know if he would be PM but something has to be done to trigger a massive clear out,” one MP said.
One supportive minister said: “We were told the PLP would rebel over Burnham, too, and two days later it was ‘Andy who?’ They’re excitable, but sensible really – not regicides like the Tories.”
No 10 sources said there was no prospect of Starmer deciding to resign – and said there was solid support from Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, and for the chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, who had been the key adviser who pushed for Mandelson’s appointment.
“Everything depends on what happens this weekend,” one said. “I can’t see Morgan resigning and Keir will stick it out for as long as he can.” Even a loss at the byelection in Gorton – which some still believe they can win – is seen as so priced-in that it may not move the herd.
Most likely to trigger a new round of anger is the release of the first tranche of Mandelson documents. Downing Street believes this will vindicate their position that Mandelson lied, but the release could take months – and the scope includes personal messages between ministers, advisers and Mandelson.
That could include exchanges with leadership hopefuls such as Streeting or Rayner. Many, however, are likely have been routinely deleted by “disappearing message” WhatsApp settings.
The delay has been deeply frustrating for No 10 – Starmer had hoped to proactively make the disclosures at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday in order to spike the Conservative guns.
But the scope of the Conservative motion that was passed is so wide that there is no way to predict what fresh embarrassment will be unleashed – which is now out of the control of No 10 and into the hands of the intelligence and security committee.
