If recession hits the UK, a base rate rise is the last thing we need

The Bank of England ‘shouldn’t be surprised if higher rates lead to a deep recession’. Photograph: Alberto Pezzali/AP

When Bank of England officials meet this week to consider how much to raise the central bank’s base rate by, they could be forgiven for having spent the previous day scratching their heads.

There are figures that show the UK economy is – like an 18th-century depiction of John Bull after a feast of pies – straining at full capacity. In normal times, low unemployment and a record number of vacancies would indicate a boom in full swing.