- One theory about the US economy being in a recession has to do with commodity futures markets not following along with bullish supply and demand situations.
- I would counter with the commodity complex has seen a continuing string of markets hitting new highs over the last year (or so), with investors rolling from one opportunity to the next.
- If everything is bullish, and investors have a seemingly endless list of markets to choose from, is it actually a recession?
A hot topic of late is if the sluggishness of the commodity complex in general is a recessionary indicator. Believe it or not, I have an opinion on that. But before I go there let me say it gets tiresome seeing the constant barrage of headlines reading something to the effect of, “Yes, markets are posting incredible rallies, but it isn’t real. Things are actually really, really bad. Don’t listen to the folks who are making money due to a list of bullish factors too long to recite, for the SKY IS FALLING!” I could go on, but you get my point.
