Paris-Roubaix Technical Director Thierry Gouvenou feels that triple defending champion Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech) still has an advantage over Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) in this Sunday's edition of the race, but only if the weather turns in his favour. Otherwise, Gouvenou said the Slovenian star will be the rider to beat.
Speaking to media during the organisation's annual recon of the Paris-Roubaix pavés earlier this week, Gouvenou ran the rule over the current state of the two top contenders for this year's race.
He also warned that the rain and a potential headwind could put the brakes on long-distance moves, so beloved of both the star riders for Sunday.
However, it's far from clear that it will rain on Sunday, with drizzle set for the morning but dry conditions in the afternoon in northern France. Furthermore, as Gouvenou saw it and particularly after Pogačar's latest triumph in the Tour of Flanders where he simply blew away all the opposition, including Van der Poel, the Slovenian was the big favourite for now.
"I think last year, there were lots of doubts about whether Pogačar could perform well at Paris-Roubaix," Gouvenou told media, including Cyclism'Actu.
"He proved that he was more than up to it, he went for the win. We're going to need to see a really strong Mathieu van der Poel to battle with him."
Gouvenou argued that Pogačar's determination to secure the one Monument that was still missing in his palmares would be a key factor in Sunday's race.
"He's going to be really ambitious, almost obsessed with winning this course and he'll be a very tough nut to crack.
"But the game is still playable, there are still uncertainties, above all because this is really the race that suits him the least. It's very flat and it demands enormous physical power.
"Mentally though, we've seen he's very strong, particularly in Milan-San Remo," he said, mentioning the race where Pogačar fought back for the victory despite a bad crash.
The pendulum could swing back in Van der Poel's favour, Gouvenou told Cyclism'Actu if certain factors came in play, most notably the weather.
"If it's dry, that can favour him. If, on the other hand, there's a headwind, he can have a tougher time opening up a gap. If it's wet, it's essential to be a top cyclo-cross man and riders like Wout van Aert [Visma-Lease a Bike] and Mathieu van der Poel [Alpecin-Premier Tech] are generally more comfortable on the pavés in those conditions.
"Right now, we could think that in that kind of scenario, Van der Poel still has a small advantage over Pogačar."
Gouvenou recognised that come what may, Pogačar's presence made for a huge boost in media interest in Paris-Roubaix. As he said, having a Tour de France winner in contention showed that it was possible to battle for both the Classics and the Grand Tours simultaneously.
"It's excellent for cycling, both for the media and for the public. Having him at the start, without that guarantee of victory - that provides a huge amount of suspense."
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