Israel’s stated war aim is to destroy Hamas and ensure there is no return to the situation before 7 October. This will not be a replay of past wars with Hamas, Israel insists, where it degraded Hamas’s capacities and bought a few years of relative quiet before everything heated up again. Yet this is exactly what is about to happen – but on a much more horrific scale. This outcome can and must be avoided for the sake of the Palestinians and to diminish Israel’s capacity for self-harm in the guise of self-defense. There is an urgent need for a ceasefire.
To see the disaster that lies ahead for Israel and the Palestinians, let’s begin with what we know and consider how the situation may evolve. What would it take for Israel to eradicate Hamas from Gaza? According to most estimates, a bloody, grinding ground war that will last weeks if not months. Whether such an operation would even accomplish this goal is anyone’s guess: Hamas is deeply entrenched in Gaza, has hundreds of miles of tunnels in which to play hide and seek, and could head south and disappear into the refugee camps.
