As Brazil prepares to head to the polls in early October, the country is bracing for a change of course. Its far-right incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, will have to pull off the seemingly impossible to defeat his centre-left rival. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the two-term former president, is consistently polling between 45% and 47%. Currently, Bolsonaro trails Lula’s 10-party coalition by 12 points. A run-off election on 30 October seems likely.
But, on the defensive, Bolsonaro has borrowed a page from Donald Trump’s playbook. If you lose, simply blame the press, the polls and the voting machines. If you can get the armed forces or militias to intervene, all the better. After all, Brazil has experienced four successful military takeovers since the country became a republic in 1889, one of which lasted 21 years. Although in the United States generals refused to aid Trump in overturning the election results, it is still not clear if their Brazilian counterparts will do the same. So far, the electoral campaign has been marred by violence from Bolsonaro’s supporters towards Lula’s Workers’ party, which has led to at least two deaths.
