As Brazil prepares to head to the polls in early October, the country is bracing for a change of course. Its far-right incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, will have to pull off the seemingly impossible to defeat his centre-left rival. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the two-term former president, is consistently polling between 45% and 47%. Currently, Bolsonaro trails Lula’s 10-party coalition by 12 points. A run-off election on 30 October seems likely.
But, on the defensive, Bolsonaro has borrowed a page from Donald Trump’s playbook. If you lose, simply blame the press, the polls and the voting machines. If you can get the armed forces or militias to intervene, all the better. After all, Brazil has experienced four successful military takeovers since the country became a republic in 1889, one of which lasted 21 years. Although in the United States generals refused to aid Trump in overturning the election results, it is still not clear if their Brazilian counterparts will do the same. So far, the electoral campaign has been marred by violence from Bolsonaro’s supporters towards Lula’s Workers’ party, which has led to at least two deaths.
In recent weeks, Bolsonaro has tried to soften his image in order to appeal to women and undecided voters. Polls indicate that his hyper-masculine bravado and ongoing attacks against female journalists have turned off many potential supporters. As a result, Lula has a 20% advantage among female voters.
Nonetheless, at government-sponsored political rallies in September, Bolsonaro reverted to his traditional sexist rhetoric. He declared he was the envy of all because his third wife was a “princess”. He also boasted that he could keep it up, in an allusion to his supposed sexual prowess that left many dumbfounded.
Bolsonaro was catapulted to the presidential palace four years ago under unusual circumstances. Lula, the Workers’ party frontrunner in the lead-up to the 2018 elections, was convicted of money laundering and corruption, and sentenced to 12 years in prison. Barred from running, his vice-presidential pick, Fernando Haddad, the former mayor of São Paulo and education minister in Lula’s government, had less than six weeks to win voters’ support. But support for Bolsonaro, an ex-army captain and law-and-order congressman from Rio de Janeiro, surged after he was stabbed during an electoral rally and he ultimately trounced Haddad by 55% to 45% in a second-round run-off. His victory in part relied on massive support from conservative evangelical Christians, who now make up more than 31% of Brazil’s population.
Bolsonaro’s appointment of far-right ideologues to many key government positions set the tone for the new administration. Internationally, he immediately aligned with the Trump administration and showed an admiration for Putin. He made severe budget cuts to education, healthcare and social services. He encouraged the deforestation of the Amazon and supported the invasion of indigenous territories by mining and lumber interests. He also stepped up the culture wars, among other issues, denouncing “gender ideology”, which was a frontal attack on the feminist and LGBT+ movements.
However, Bolsonaro’s mishandling of the Covid-19 crisis alienated many supporters. He refused to wear a mask. He endorsed fake medical treatments à la Trump and stalled the implementation of an effective vaccination programme. He even ordered that the contents of his own medical record remain sealed for 100 years. He showed little compassion for the 680,000 Brazilians who had died from the virus, and his support dropped significantly. A recent poll found that 52% of the electorate did not plan to vote for him.
In the meantime, Lula served 580 days in prison, and was able to walk free after the supreme court dismissed charges against him based on technicalities and a lack of evidence. Finally eligible to run for the presidency, he immediately surged in the polls.
Bolsonaro’s attempts to undermine the country’s voting system have so far been met with staunch resistance. Brazil has long defended its democratic voting rights – for 90 years, a special court has overseen the election process, headed by a member of the supreme court. In 1996, Brazil replaced paper ballots with electronic voting machines, which have proven to be fraud-proof. In August, and in response to Bolsonaro’s calls for armed forces to monitor the election results, some of the country’s most prominent lawyers and public figures issued a manifesto in defence of democracy, signed by a million Brazilians, including important entrepreneurs, business associations, trade unions and human rights organisations.
The Biden administration has also weighed in on the elections, with representatives from the US state and defence departments issuing statements to express their confidence in the Brazilian electoral system and eschewing any possible moves by Bolsonaro to stage a coup. Knowing that Lula is ahead in the polls, US policymakers are signalling that they can live with a centre-left government led by the Workers’ party. Brazilian civil society organisations have also called on leaders around the world to recognise the election results.
Whether Bolsonaro will do the same remains in doubt. Much like Trump, many of his public statements are ambiguous. One day he declares that he will respect the electoral outcome, the next he insists that the polls are wrong and that he will receive 60% of the votes in the first round – and if he doesn’t, it will be due to voter fraud. He has shown a capability to mobilise his supporters in the streets. Many attend his rallies with signs endorsing his attacks on the supreme court and calling for a military intervention.
But whether Brazil’s armed forces, military police, or militias would support Bolsonaro in a January 6-style attempt to overturn the election results remains to be seen. It is possible that his threats are merely a means of consolidating his base, hovering around 30%, as a pressure block for future negotiations to avoid criminal prosecution for alleged government mismanagement and corruption. Or perhaps he will resort to violence. By all accounts, this is the most important election since Brazil returned to a democratic regime in the late 1980s.
James N Green is professor of Brazilian history and culture at Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, and president of the board of directors of the Washington Brazil Office
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