Let’s not pretend it can’t happen.
The 49ers (13-4) are a prohibitive favorite Saturday against a team that barely had a winning record, a veteran quarterback who is respected if not feared, and are playing at Levi’s Stadium on what is expected to be a sloppy track.
Few are giving the Seattle Seahawks (9-8) much of a chance in the first game of the NFL’s wild-card round. The Seahawks, whopping 10-point underdogs, are a gnat on the windshield against a team that fought and scraped its way into the NFC Championship Game a year ago and is much better a year later.
“I just think we’re playing at a higher level, really, whether it’s offense or defense,” 49ers tight end George Kittle said Wednesday. “Our defense is No 1 the entire season. That helps a lot. We’re plus-13 in the turnover battle which is the most important thing in football. That was big for us. Our offense right now is just making plays, whether it’s running backs, fullbacks, tight ends, receivers.”
Coach Kyle Shanahan is pushing aside talk of being the favorite in favor of a second meeting on Dec. 15 when the Seahawks ended up within 21-13.
“I look at all games as equal. I know we’re favored,” Shanahan said Thursday. “I know what people say, but this is the NFL and this is the playoffs and the last time we played it came down to the last possession. I expect it to be the same.”
Shanahan would be in the minority.
If the Seahawks are nervous about walking the plank, they’re doing a good job hiding it. When a reporter began a question about being underdogs to coach Pete Carroll, the longtime coach deadpanned, “We’re underdogs?”
Carroll, 71 years young, was spotted riding a scooter through team headquarters. Players were loose and relaxed, enjoying the idea that nothing is expected but everything is for the taking. If the Seahawks lose, there’s a collective shrug in the Northwest and the knowledge they lost playing with house money.
But if the 49ers lose, it’s a train wreck the likes of which has been seen only one other time in franchise history. It would be analyzed, parsed and dissected for years, a reference point forever about the pitfalls of taking something for granted.
Futures would be affected for both players and coaches as retribution.
“This is not a fairytale,” Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith said. “This is real life.”
In real life, sometimes the football can take funny bounces.
Nothing has ever gone more sideways when it mattered for the 49ers more than Jan. 9, 1988:
Final score: Minnesota Vikings 36, 49ers 24.
A team with a postseason history like the 49ers has plenty of difficult playoff losses, with those against the Cowboys, Giants and Packers coming to mind. But those were all championship-caliber opponents. Jimmy Johnson and Troy Aikman. Bill Parcells and Lawrence Taylor. Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre.
Losing was always a possibility.
The Vikings were criticized for “backing in” to the playoffs at 8-7 and needed a 44-10 win against New Orleans the wild-card round for the right to get blown out in the second round by the 49ers.
The 49ers were 13-2 in the strike-shortened season and won their last three games by a combined 124-7. Ranked No. 1 in scoring and No. 3 in scoring allowed. They had Joe Montana, Roger Craig, Jerry Rice, Brent Jones and Ronnie Lott. Charles Haley was in his second season.
Rice caught 22 touchdown passes in a 15-game season, losing out on the MVP vote to John Elway only because he and Montana split the vote.
Then journeyman quarterback Wade Wilson began connecting with Anthony Carter, Montana struggled, and the Vikings took control and never let up. Carter caught 10 passes for 227 yards in the mud and ran once from scrimmage for 30 yards while the 49ers spun their wheels. Wilson was 20 of 34 for 298 yards and two touchdowns and one interception.
Montana was pulled for the first time ever for non-injury reasons by coach Bill Walsh after having a pass intercepted by Najee Mustapha and returned 45 yards for a touchdown before halftime, at which point the 49ers trailed 20-3.
Steve Young rallied the 49ers in the second half, but they could never catch up. They were beaten to the punch from beginning to end.
Rice caught just three passes for 28 yards, which was less than the four catches for 39 yards by a Minnesota running back named Allen Rice.
Even without the boost of social media, shockwaves reverberated throughout the Bay Area. In 55 playoff games since 1970, the 49ers have been double-digit favorites five times and the Vikings game remains the only loss.
Walsh later told NFL Films he was humiliated and that the Minnesota game was “the most traumatic experience I’ve had in sports.” Walsh feared he might be fired, but DeBartolo instead stripped him of his club presidency.
“It had repercussions throughout our organization for months to come,” Walsh said.
If DK Metcalf can jump and catch against the occasionally suspect 49ers deep secondary like Carter, Smith assumes the Wade Wilson role and Kenneth Walker III gets going on the ground, who knows? What if Deebo Samuel is rusty, Christian McCaffrey is held relatively in check and Brock Purdy finally looks like a rookie?
What happened against Minnesota has no direct impact on Saturday and is no more than a history lesson. Unless of course, the 49ers lose, and then it’s a sports disaster the likes of which the franchise hasn’t seen in 35 years.
The good news is after the Minnesota loss, the 49ers ended up getting back in the saddle and winning a pair of Super Bowls following the 1989 and 1990 seasons.
Which will be of no comfort if a promising season goes off the rails against a decided underdog.
