While the old adage goes that you shouldn’t look at the MLB standings until Memorial Day, we live in the Statcast era, and don’t have to wait nearly as long to confidently identify trends emerging early in the season for individual players.
MLB’s Statcast metrics were introduced in 2015 alongside the introduction of 12 Hawk-Eye cameras into each stadium, which use frame-by-frame tracking to give us a wealth of information on every player in the league. These advanced proprietary metrics—such as exit velocity, barrel rate, sprint speed, expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), arm strength and outs above average—stabilize quicker than surface-level statistics and need about a month’s worth of data to balance out. It’s made it much easier to identify baseball’s best athletes and predict future success, even if the sport continues to surprise us every day.
In this exercise we’ll highlight one player at each position who stood out in the first month of the 2024 season via Statcast data, even if sometimes the on-field results aren’t yet matching the underlying metrics.
Kansas City’s veteran backstop has been active for the entirety of the Statcast era (which dates back to 2015), so it’s notable that he’s on pace for his best season in terms of both batting and fielding.
Pérez carries a long-held reputation for his defensive prowess, but Statcast has never been a fan of his pitch framing, a skill that has become easier to judge with the advent of new technology. Currently, however, he ranks in the 85th percentile of catchers for his ability to steal strikes to go along with his typically plus grades for blocking errant pitches and controlling the base paths with his rocket arm.
Where he’s really stood out, though, is on offense. The 33-year-old ranks in the 96th percentile or better in barrel rate, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout rate (K%), the latter of which is remarkable (and almost surely unsustainable) for someone with his free-swinging ways. Put it all together and Pérez, who currently owns a 21-game on-base streak, ranks in the 99th percentile of batting run value.
Even though Perez may be the most likely player on this list to tail off as the season goes on—there’s no way someone who chases so many pitches out of the zone can maintain a .355 batting average—he’s seeing the ball extremely well so far both at the plate and behind it.
Honorable mentions: Shea Langeliers, Oakland A’s; William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
I’m cheating a bit on this one, as O’Hearn isn’t even the primary first baseman for his team (that’s Ryan Mountcastle) and has mostly filled Baltimore’s DH slot while also earning time in the outfield corners. But it’s been a down season overall for first basemen thus far, and O’Hearn’s Statcast numbers are so absurd that they’re worth highlighting.
The 30-year-old leads all players (min. 75 PAs) in xSLG (.762) and xBA (.366) while also ranking in the 91st percentile or better in exit velocity, barrel rate, sweet-spot percentage, chase rate and K%. This is a player in his seventh season who’s never had more than 370 plate appearances and last year posted a career-best 1.2 WAR with Baltimore after mostly struggling through five seasons in Kansas City.
With 79 plate appearances and four home runs in 30 games, O’Hearn’s Statcast rates could be a small sample size anomaly. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde sits O’Hearn against fellow lefthanders, and for good reason (0-for-5 this year, .529 career OPS against LHPs). But he’s been a force to be reckoned with against righthanders and is playing a significant role for the AL East–leading O’s.
Honorable mentions: Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians; Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
Marte has long been one of the game’s more underappreciated stars, and he gained some well-deserved visibility during Arizona’s underdog World Series run by shattering the postseason hitting streak record (20 games) and earning NLCS MVP honors.
The 30-year-old has followed that up with the best Statcast showing of his career, ranking in the top 10% of exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. That’s helped him record a 145 OPS+, his best mark since 2019, when he earned his lone All-Star bid and finished fourth in NL MVP voting. Marte also leads the NL in defensive WAR and ranks in the 98th percentile in OAA, which should at least put him in the conversation to earn his first Gold Glove.
Honorable mention: Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers; José Altuve, Houston Astros
After an up-and-down rookie campaign, De La Cruz is now consistently showcasing all the talents in his arsenal that made him a hyped five-tool prospect. He ranks among the top 10% of major leaguers in average exit velocity, xSLG, walk rate (BB%), arm strength and sprint speed. His barrel rate has increased 9.5% from last season, the second-best improvement among qualified hitters, per The Athletic’s Eno Harris. Basically, he’s taking more pitches and making better contact when he does swing. That’s a formula for success for someone with De La Cruz’s supreme physical gifts.
You may have seen that Cincinnati’s 22-year-old metronome uncorked the fastest throw in MLB’s recorded history on Monday, a heave so forceful that Reds first baseman Jeimer Candelario couldn’t react quickly enough to catch it. It’s usually Cincinnati’s opponents who can’t catch De La Cruz, who leads the majors with 18 stolen bases to go along with eight home runs. He’s the only player ever to record even six home runs and 11 stolen bases by the end of April.
After Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. became the first player to ever record a 40–70 season in 2023, De La Cruz has a chance to top that with a previously unthinkable 40–100 season. There were several worthy candidates for this spot, including MLB WAR leader Mookie Betts, but that possibility clinches this slot for the Reds’ switch-hitting stud.
Honorable mentions: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers; Bobby Witt Jr., Royals; Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
It’s tough to bypass Baltimore’s Jordan Westburg for this spot given the 25-year-old leads his position in xBA (.347) and xSLG (.594). But Bohm has been the superior player in terms of making contact, with an elite 13.3% whiff rate and a vast improvement in his chase rate (22.8%) giving him a more complete profile and helping the fifth-year player rank second in the majors in batting average (.362) and third in OPS (1.018). He’s also been graded as an above-average defender by outs above average (OAA), which rated him poorly in his first four seasons.
Bohm failed over the past few years to match the promise of his 2020 rookie campaign, when he finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting, but his breakout has secured him the cleanup slot in Philadelphia’s dangerous lineup and put him in pole position to start in the real All-Star Game.
Honorable mentions: Jordan Westburg, Orioles; Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
There are several deserving candidates for this spot, as Baltimore’s Colton Cowser, the Los Angeles Angels’ Taylor Ward and even New York Mets leadoff man Brandon Nimmo—one of the season’s unluckiest hitters—all boast stellar batted-profiles and thus have a bunch of red bars littering their Statcast profiles. But Greene has been the most valuable when taking his plate discipline, baserunning, fielding and sample size into account.
The third-year Tiger is enjoying a fantastic breakout campaign fueled by a more patient plate approach that’s reflected in his MLB-best 17.8% walk rate, a remarkable development for a 23-year-old who’d previously been near the middle of the pack in that regard. He’s also stinging the ball when he does choose to swing, with elite percentile rates in barrel percentage (98th), xSLG (93rd), sweet-spot percentage (89th) and exit velocity (82nd).
The former top prospect has been Detroit’s MVP and is the biggest reason why the Tigers would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today after languishing through nine consecutive losing years.
Honorable mentions: Taylor Ward, Angels; Colton Cowser, Orioles; Brandon Nimmo, Mets
Even before Trout suffered yet another injury this week, he wasn’t making quite as much hard contact as he did at his peak. But in a year when past Statcast studs such as Aaron Judge, Julio Rodríguez, Byron Buxton and Michael Harris Jr. have all come out of the gate slowly, the face of the Angels still separated himself from other center fielders through April by co-leading the majors with 10 home runs and ranking in the top 4% of xSLG (.599) and barrel rate (17.1%).
The three-time MVP also showed he was still a force on the basepaths with eight stolen bases and a 92nd percentile sprint speed, but we can only hope that will still be the case when he returns from his torn meniscus.
Honorable mentions: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees; Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco Giants
After years of anticipation, we may finally be bearing witness to a Juan Soto MVP season. The 2019 World Series champion has put up the numbers in the past to claim baseball’s top individual honor, but the path seems to be clearing for him for the first time in his debut season in the Bronx. Soto has carried a Yankees offense that endured a disappointing April from Aaron Judge, leading the AL in on-base percentage (.439) and OPS (1.014) while launching eight home runs.
Soto’s Statcast numbers may be even more impressive. He leads all qualified outfielders with a .632 xSLG and ranks in the 94th percentile or better in *clears throat* exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, chase rate, BB% and K%. The 25-year-old has basically been the AL’s version of Shohei Ohtani (more on him in a minute), except with more of his trademark plate discipline and less gap power.
He’s even shown stark improvement on defense, rating as an above-average defender in terms of both range and arm strength for the first time—which he showed off in dramatic fashion on Opening Day, immediately endearing himself to Yankees fans. GM Brian Cashman might never recover in the eyes of New York’s fan base if he lets Soto depart as a free agent in the offseason, let alone to the crosstown Mets.
Honorable mentions: Tyler O’Neill, Red Sox; Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres; Adolis García, Rangers
Even though he’s not pitching this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, baseball’s biggest superstar is still finding a way to readjust our expectations for what’s possible in the majors.
Ohtani has essentially completed his transformation into the best all-around hitter in the world, combining power and contact at the plate like no one else. He leads qualified batters in barrel rate (22.9%), hard-hit rate (61%) and xBA (.360) while also ranking comfortably above average in K% (18.8%) and whiff rate (23.8%). (All of those marks are career bests, naturally.)
If Ohtani continues to produce even close to this pace over the course of his 10-year contract, he’ll be worth $700 million to the Dodgers even if he never pitches again.
Honorable mention: Marcell Ozuna, Braves; Yordan Álvarez, Astros
Skubal has shown flashes of his potential over the last couple of years, but he’s put everything together in 2024 after elbow surgery erased a good chunk of each of his last two seasons. It’s still early, as most starters have pitched only six games, but he’s in the thick of contention to take the hill for the AL in the All-Star Game.
Skubal leads the AL with a 0.74 WHIP and has allowed just two home runs in 36 ⅔ innings. The former ninth-round pick is also the only qualified lefthanded starter averaging at least 10 K/9 and less than 1.5 BB/9. That mastery of the strike zone and ability to keep the ball in the yard has helped the 27-year-old log a FIP under 3.00 in each of the last three seasons, and his 2.51 FIP over that span trails only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (2.50) among pitchers with at least 200 innings.
Skubal’s fastball velocity has actually increased since he went under the knife, going from 94.4 mph in 2022 (59th percentile among all pitchers) to 96.2 mph this year (86th percentile), and he occasionally touches triple digits. That’s helped him accrue more run value off his fastballs (a four-seamer and a sinker) than any other starter. His changeup and breaking offerings (curveball, slider) have positive run values, too, and the whole arsenal has put him in the top 20% of all pitchers for average exit velocity, xBA, chase rate, whiff rate, K%, BB%, hard-hit rate and expected ERA (xERA). That’s a remarkable feat for a starting pitcher, and the sort of dominance you usually see from a top-end closer who can afford to let it loose on every pitch.
But Skubal is more than a top-end closer—he’s a legitimate ace that hitters won’t be looking forward to facing in October if Detroit can make its first playoff appearance since 2014.
Honorable mentions: Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates; Ranger Suárez, Phillies; Ronel Blanco, Astros; Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
Not much has gone right for the Athletics over the past few years, but Miller’s sudden maturation into MLB’s most fearsome closer counts as a major victory. A third-round pick in the 2021 draft out of Gardner-Webb University, Miller made six of his 10 appearances last year as a starter but Oakland shifted him to the closer’s role this year to electrifying effect.
The 25-year-old’s 100.8 mph heater is the fastest in the majors by nearly a full tick over Milwaukee’s Abner Uribe, and he can ramp it up all the way to 104. Paired with his wicked slider, it’s a devastating onslaught for any opposing batter with a split second to ascertain whether he’s facing a high heater or a slider set to drop off the table. The vast majority of hitters haven’t been able to—Miller leads the majors in xERA (0.79), xBA (.080), K% (54.9%) and whiff rate (49.5%). He also carried a -0.14 FIP after recording his eighth save in eight tries against Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Yes, that’s a negative FIP, and yes, he’s struck out more than half the hitters he’s faced.
Miller has already proved he can make perhaps the most confident hitter on Earth look silly on a three-pitch punchout.
Oakland is just two games under .500 and no longer looks like the league’s laughingstock. You can be sure no one’s laughing when stepping into the batter’s box against Miller. Try praying.
