Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long been a vocal defender of the Palestinian cause, condemning Israel for its actions towards Palestinians, and once notably berating the late former Israeli President Shimon Peres on stage at the World Economic Forum.
His vocal support for Palestine reflects how important the Palestinian cause is to many Turkish citizens. Back in 2010, for instance, a boat called the Mavi Marmara – part of a flotilla seeking to deliver aid to the besieged Gaza Strip – was stopped and raided by Israeli forces.
Nine people on board were killed, while dozens were injured. The incident fractured Turkey-Israeli relations for years until 2016, when the countries agreed to a pathway to normalising relations.
But ties are souring again due to Israel’s devastating war on Gaza.
While Erdogan has harshly condemned Israel’s war, he, along with his government, has been criticised both domestically and abroad for what has been perceived as a lack of direct action in support of Gaza since the beginning of Israel’s war on the enclave in October.
In recent weeks, however, Turkey has become increasingly adamant in its stance. On Wednesday, it formally submitted its declaration to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Sinem Adar, an expert on Turkey and a research associate with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), said that Turkey took this step in large part because Erdogan and his base, who tend to be religious Muslims, are passionate about supporting Palestinians. But, she added, that this step partly reflects the government’s lack of leverage to shape the situation in Israel-Palestine.
Adar noted that for years Turkey has tried to brand itself as a regional power, but said that Erdogan is not involved in the current ceasefire negotiations, has little leverage over Israel and is “not seen as a credible partner” by Western countries who support Israel militarily and diplomatically.
“I think [the regional crisis since] October 7 has revealed to the government the limits of its own power [to shape outcomes],” Adar told Al Jazeera.
Some analysts say the move to file a complaint at the ICJ is largely symbolic and more aimed at appeasing those domestic constituents and critics calling on their government to show solidarity with Palestinians.
“This move is consistent with the harsh and critical rhetoric that the government has adopted against Israel and it would have been criticised domestically if it did not take this step,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and the director of a Turkey-based think tank Edam.
Responding to outrage
Across Turkey’s political spectrum, Turks are furious with Israel’s devastating war on Gaza.
Israel has killed some 40,000 Palestinians in the besieged enclave and displaced nearly the entire population of 2.3 million people, while also generating a mass famine and the spread of disease that threatens to kill thousands more.
Israel’s war came in response to a Hamas-led attack on Israeli military outposts and communities on October 7, during which an estimated 1,139 people were killed and roughly 250 were taken captive.
Erdogan, from the conservative ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), condemned the death of Israeli civilians by Hamas and other Palestinian groups.
But he also said that Hamas is a liberation group and “not a terrorist organisation” as designated by the United States, Europe and Israel. He then cancelled a trip to Israel, while describing the war in Gaza as “inhumane”.
Since then, relations between Turkey and Israel have deteriorated, analysts told Al Jazeera. Turkey has responded by organising pro-Palestinian marches and cutting $7bn worth of trade with Israel. As a member of the North Atlantic Trade Alliance (NATO), a military alliance of 30 countries, Turkey has also blocked cooperation between the alliance and Israel.
Now, Turkey is also joining South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ.
“I think Erdogan and his people have realised that they need to do something and they can’t just do it for show. They need to be active on various fronts, even if it is not particularly important or useful to their long-term interests,” said Selim Koru, an expert on Turkey and a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
Domestic political impact
Back in March, the AK Party lost out to the opposition in several big cities during local elections, in part due to its perceived failure to take a stand against Israel, according to Adar.
She said that among traditional AK Party strongholds, a rival Islamic-oriented party called the New Welfare Party (YRP), has begun challenging the AK Party from the right.
The YRP has been heavily critical of Israel since October 7. It has even threatened to run its own candidate instead of backing Erdogan in the next presidential elections if he does not take a number of measures to support Palestinians – hurting his chances at re-election, said Adar.
“Halting trade was a move that resulted due to domestic pressure,” Adar told Al Jazeera.
The Turkish Ministry of Trade said that the move was taken to pressure Israel to let in vital humanitarian aid into Gaza. “Turkey will strictly and decisively implement the new measures until the Israeli government allows an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza,” it said in a statement.
Adar added that the YRP also wanted the government to send troops to Gaza and close down a NATO radar centre in Kurecik, a town in southeastern Turkey. The YRP believes that the station was “established to protect” Israel, a charge the government denies.
Erdogan has not taken these steps. But at the end of July, he said that “there is no reason” why Turkey could not act in Gaza, referencing other Turkish military interventions in the region.
While Turkey’s political landscape has been quite polarised in recent years, a recent social media incident pointed to a rare moment of political unity.
Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, recently criticised Erdogan in a post on X, saying that the president was turning the country into a “dictatorship” by blocking access to Instagram ostensibly because the social media platform was removing posts that expressed grief for Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Iran’s capital Tehran last week – a killing widely believed to have been carried out by Israel.
He tagged the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, seemingly in an attempt to exploit political divides in Israel’s favour. Imamoglu belongs to the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Imamoglu responded to Katz by saying, “We have no need to receive lessons on democracy and law from those responsible for the suffering and deaths of countless innocents including children.”
“That was a rather inept attempt [by Katz] to leverage Turkey’s internal political cleavages, but not surprisingly it backfired,” said Ulgen from Edam.
Even so, many were unhappy about the move to suspend access to Instagram.
“The anecdotal reaction that we see is that there is not a wide basis of support for that ban because the ban is viewed as a disproportionate measure and the more recommended measure is to have a firm dialogue with the management of the platform,” explained Ulgen.
“Instagram is also used by small and medium-sized businesses and now their business model will be harmed by this access ban,” he added.
Serious damage
The ongoing war on Gaza has significantly strained relations between Israel and Turkey.
Koru, from FPRI, explained that the Palestinian cause is generally a multi-partisan issue in Turkey, despite the often polarised political landscape.
He told Al Jazeera that secular-nationalist parties may view the conflict through a human rights perspective, while AK Party supporters see it as a “civilisational” issue as in a war on fellow Muslims, the faith most Palestinians adhere to.
Either way, Koru can’t imagine any political faction trying to restore relations with Israel due to the extreme violence it has inflicted on Gaza.
“Pretty much everyone in Turkey agrees that the Palestinians are being subjected to horrible crimes by the Israelis and that every state should do something about that,” he explained.
