MIAMI — Ian strengthened early Wednesday into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane that is close to Cat 5 strength. The hurricane is forecast to whip Florida with catastrophic winds, flooding rain and life-threatening storm surge as it gets closer to a west coast landfall Wednesday afternoon.
The storm surge predictions soared overnight to 12 to 16 feet for Englewood to Bonita Bay, a forecast so high a new color was added to the National Hurricane Center’s peak storm surge prediction map.
Wednesday morning, Ian’s outer bands were already battering Southwest Florida. South Florida saw tornadoes overnight that flipped small airplanes and took down big trees, and Key West recorded one of its highest ever storm surge levels overnight.
“The storm is here. It is imminent,” the state’s director of emergency management, Kevin Guthrie, said on the Weather Channel.
As of the 8 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ian had maximum sustained winds near 155 mph with higher gusts, putting it just shy of a Category 5. To be a Cat 5, Ian needs to have maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph.
Ian could still weaken before landfall but if not, it could rank among the most powerful storms to hit the United States.
Nine storms have reached Category 5 status while at sea but only four have made landfall at that strength in the U.S. — three of them in Florida. The most recent was Michael, which hammered the Panhandle in 2018. Andrew devastated South Miami-Dade in 1992 and an unnamed storm now known as the Labor Day hurricane swept the Florida Keys in 1935. Camille roared into the Mississippi coastline in 1969.
Ian was about 55 miles west of Naples and about 60 miles southwest of Punta Gorda, the hurricane center said in an 8 a.m. update. The storm was moving north-northeast near 10 mph.
Ian’s hurricane-force winds are expected to reach much of Florida’s Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, which has a hurricane warning in effect from Chokoloskee to the Anclote River, including the Tampa Bay region.
However, the storm is expected to slow down as it gets closer to Florida’s western coast, before making landfall Wednesday afternoon somewhere between Fort Myers and Sarasota as a powerful Cat 4 hurricane.
As of the 5 a.m. forecast, Ian’s center is heading to Port Charlotte and devastating wind damage is expected near the storm’s core. Weakening is expected once it makes landfall, with the storm expected to move over Central Florida Wednesday night and Thursday morning and emerging over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.
Storm surge totals jumped up overnight. The middle of Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor, is forecast to see the most storm surge, with 12 to 16 feet possible.
“This is unsurvivable,” said Jeff Huffman, digital meteorologist for Baron Weather.
Ian, which already devastated Cuba Tuesday when it was a Category 3 hurricane, is a large and powerful storm. The Cat 4 storm’s hurricane-force winds extend 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force wind extend up to 175 miles.
That’s why all of Florida’s east coast, including South Florida, which has already been feeling some of Ian’s effects, particularly in the Keys, is under a tropical storm warning. The Dry Tortugas is under a hurricane warning.
Ian will also be a rainmaker. The hurricane center predicts up to 12 inches in South Florida and up to 24 inches for central and northeast Florida.
“Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast later this week and this weekend. Catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina,” the hurricane center said. “Widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida.”
____
