MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 310 main event between Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Ian Machado Garry UFC 310 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 15-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 27 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Michael Paige (June 29, 2024)
- Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Cage Warriors welterweight title
+ Judo black belt
+ Amateur/youth boxing exp.
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid sense of range and distance
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Good straight punches and kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
^ Favors attempts from the clinch
+ Improved transitional grappler
^ Works well from topside
Shavkat Rakhmonov UFC 310 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 18-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 30 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: Submission win over Steven Thompson (Dec. 16, 2023)
- Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida/Kazakstan)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/Kickboxng
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ M-1 welterweight title
+ Amateur MMAaccolades
+ Master of sports in combat sambo and MMA
+ 8 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Solid proprioception and accuracy
^ Counters to spinning assaults
+ Superb clinch striking
^ Slicing elbows and brutal body knees
+ Solidwrestling ability
+ Deceptive/opportunistic chokes
+ Dangerous ground-and-pound
Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov point of interest: Undefeated threats
The co-main event for UFC 310 features a welterweight contenders fight between two undefeated talents.
Despite coming from a grappling base, Ian Garry has dabbled with the striking arts from a young age.
An accomplished youth boxer, Garry possesses solid straight punches down the center line from both stances. Although Garry primarily operates out of orthodox, he occasionally switches sides for open-stance opportunities.
When feeling in stride, Garry will attach kicks to his punches, punishing all three levels.
Garry may take the back foot a bit too much for my liking, but his comfort with distance and range-finding allows him to build progress once he can establish his lead hand. And if an opponent over-commits from their power side, Garry appears to have some natural pull counters in his repertoire.
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That said, counter striking appears to be a potent two-way street in Garry’s fights, so the Brazilian-Irishman will need to be mindful of what’s coming back at him when standing across from Shavkat Rakhmonov.
An imposing Kazak fighter who has taken the welterweight division by storm, Rakhmonov is an offensive marauder who carries some deceptive craft to his game.
A master of sports in combat sambo, Rakhmonov fully understands that offense and aggression are what ultimately win fights in MMA. But what really fuels Rakhmonov’s success is his preternatural proprioception and opportunistic sensibilities that constantly allow him to flow into offensive opportunities.
Whether Rakhmonov is coming over the top of an opponent’s jab or catching them with a spin kick as they attempt to circle out, the 30-year-old phenom seldom seems short on ideas given his hardwiring for violence in all phases.
Rakhmonov’s head movement and sometimes lackadaisical defense leave some room to be desired, but he does well at quietly rolling with shots and hitting defensive pivots that allow him to return fire. And once Rakhmonov can work into clinch space, “Nomad” utilizes crafty wrist controls in conjunction with overhooks in order to land slicing elbows and brutal body knees.
Shavkat film room on the channel pic.twitter.com/X78PqJxFC6
— Jack Slack (@JackSlackMMA) December 5, 2024
Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering where the biggest on-paper disparity lies, no one should be shocked if Rakhmonov looks to grapple Garry this Saturday.
Rakhmonov isn’t necessarily a lights-out wrestler, but he does have some solid tricks from the clinch that he regularly goes to.
A tall and lanky fighter, Rakhmonov can lock his hands off deceptively strong over-under tie-ups as he looks to step around his opposition to complete a takedown. And if he can’t connect his hands, then Rakhmonov is not afraid to drop down for single-leg variations to maneuver some surprisingly effect knee-tap finishes to his takedowns.
Luckily for Garry, he comes from a base in judo.
Now, Garry may not be putting up Karo Parisyan-like throws in the octagon, but the judo black belt does well at keeping a strong base and stymying opposition in closed quarters.
Garry will utilize more traditional takedown attacks despite his background, but the 27-year-old seems to prefer attempts from the clinch – which could be interesting considering Rakhmonov’s acumen in said space.
Aside from his aforementioned offense in the previous section, Rakhmonov is also an incredibly crafty choke artist who can create more suffocation points than David Carradine can in a Thai hotel room.
From arm-in guillotines to makeshift rear-naked chokes with no hooks attached, Rakhmonov needs only a small window to close the show. And if he ends up in top position, Rakhmonov is not afraid to rain hell from above in the form of standing ground and pound, which is an underutilized approach (particularly for long-armed fighters).
In Garry’s defense, he has made concerted efforts to improve his grappling since moving shop to Brazil. Training with everyone from Charles Oliveira to Demian Maia, Garry appeared to be approaching his ground game with renewed vigor in his last outing, so I suggest leaving some room to be surprised.
Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov odds
The oddsmakers and the public currently favor the Kazak fighter, listing Rakhmonov -400 and Garry +300 via FanDuel.
Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov prediction
Between the hype of Rakhmonov and the fact that Garry is the one who is technically fighting on short notice, I’m not surprised to see such a wide betting spread in Rakhmonov’s favor. However, I warn anyone investing too much into narratives and completely writing off Garry’s skills.
I won’t die too hard on any hills as far as Garry’s ceiling goes, but he does have some solid skills that could pose Rakhmonov issues at range.
From a higher output to a more consistent jab, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Garry pester Rakhmonov early and often in this contest. And if Garry can survive some scares and drag this fight late, then he has a real chance to test Rakhmonov’s staying power (as we’ve yet to see Rakhmonov in championship rounds).
That said, output can come with a high cost – usually in the form of unforgiving counters.
As I pointed out before his fights with Michael Paige and Geoff Neal, Garry seems to struggle with fighters who can competently counter. Not only is Rakhmonov a fighter who can capitalize on openings like second nature, but his kill zone of the clinch also just so happens to be Garry’s preferred place of comfort.
Add in Garry’s propensity skirt along the outside of the cage, and it’s hard not to see Rakhmonov eventually forcing his win conditions. The pick is Rakhmonov by submission in Round 2.
Prediction: Rakhmonov inside the distance
Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov start time, where to watch
As the co-main event, Garry and Rakhmonov are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view (via ESPN+).
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 310.
