TAMPA, Fla. — Tropical Storm Ian intensified overnight into a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center, and forecasters expect the storm will be a major hurricane by the end of the day.
The hurricane center on Monday morning also placed Tampa Bay under a hurricane watch and a storm surge watch. Tampa Bay remained firmly in the storm’s forecast cone, though forecasters said there was still a great deal of uncertainty about Ian’s path.
As of 8 a.m. Monday, Hurricane Ian was 90 miles west southwest of Grand Cayman and about 275 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving northwest at about 14 mph and had sustained winds near 75 mph with higher gusts, the 8 a.m. update from the hurricane center said.
Hurricane Ian will move over the warm waters of the Caribbean today and will face very little wind shear, leading the storm to rapidly intensify, the hurricane center said. Forecasters expect Ian will be a major hurricane when it passes near or over western Cuba on Monday night.
Ian likely won’t spend much time over Cuba and forecasters expect the storm to strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
By the middle of the week, wind shear could punch down on Ian’s intensity and the storm is expected to slow down. Forecasters said Ian could bring strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the west coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area.
“It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame, and users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges,” the hurricane center said.
The hurricane watch and storm surge watch stretched from Englewood to the Anclote River, which includes all of the Tampa Bay area. The hurricane center said west central Florida could have significant flooding.
A hurricane watch is issued when conditions are possible within 48 hours, and a warning is when conditions are expected within 36 hours.
A hurricane warning was in effect for Grand Cayman and the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and for the lower Florida Keys — from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West — and the dry Tortugas.
The hurricane center said Ian could bring flash flooding and possible mudslides to areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
Spectrum Bay News 9 forecasters said Ian could slow down around the time it is parallel to the west coast of Florida. The unfavorable scenario would mean Tampa Bay would feel hurricane conditions for a longer period of time, according to Josh Linker, a Spectrum Bay News 9 meteorologist.
Tropical storm conditions could begin as early as Wednesday morning south of Tampa Bay and last through Thursday evening north of Tampa Bay, Linker wrote in an update posted about 5:45 a.m.
Another problem, Linker said, is that if Ian slows, some areas could see more than 10 inches of rain.
“With an already saturated ground and rivers near flood stage from summer rainy season, fresh water flooding may be a problem,” Linker said.
Tampa Bay began its storm preparations this past weekend amid warnings from officials, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, President Joe Biden and local leaders.
DeSantis declared a state of emergency for all of Florida’s 67 counties on Saturday. Biden also declared an emergency for the state, authorizing the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate disaster relief efforts.
Tampa Bay area governments opened sandbag locations over the weekend.
Local colleges and schools began announcing closures Sunday. Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough school district officials said Sunday they would close schools this week in anticipation of Hurricane Ian. The Bay Pines VA Healthcare system also announced several closures, from Port Charlotte to Pinellas County.
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