We have all felt the pinch at the supermarket till over the past year, but how much have prices actually gone up by? Households are facing an increase of £788 to their annual grocery bills "if they don't change their behaviour to cut costs", said Kantar analyst Fraser McKevitt last month..
We have been tracking prices for the past year to work out which products are going up the most and which supermarkets are offering the best deals. Starting in March, 2022, we looked at the cost of seven essential items in seven of the biggest supermarkets in Wales.
A year ago, the shopping baskets from the different stores showed a difference of more than £2 between the most expensive and cheapest shops. Over the past 12 months Aldi has consistently come out on top when it comes to the cheapest cost for the basket of seven items, but every supermarket has seen a big increase in mainly milk and bread. You can get more consumer news and other story updates straight to your inbox by subscribing to our newsletters here.
The items we have been buying are:
- two pints of semi-skimmed milk
- a box of 6 free range eggs
- pack of mature cheddar cheese
- 500g of spaghetti
- one loaf of thick-cut white sliced bread
- six Braeburn appeals
- a 12-pack of breakfast wheat cereal.
The first set of prices were taken on the morning of Thursday, March 17, 2022, from seven different supermarkets in south Wales, including Aldi, Asda, Tesco, M&S, Sainsbury's and Morrisons. The second set were taken from the same supermarkets on Friday, March 17, 2023.
Prices have gone up at all of the supermarkets over the past year. Aldi has been the cheapest on 10 out of the 12 months, but our year-on-year comparison has found that the supermarket with the lowest price increase was Morrisons (7.7%) where the price went from £10.35 to £11.15.
The supermarket with the largest increase in price was Sainsbury's where the basket of seven items increased by 32.6% from £.8.90 to £11.81.
The price of milk has gone up across the board from 95p for two pints in the majority of supermarkets to £1.30 across most, an increase of 36%. A shortage of eggs between March, 2022, and March, 2023 was also evident at most of the supermarkets we visited this week.
The price of a pack of six eggs has gone up at all the supermarkets apart from Morrisons, where the cost went down from £2 to £1.39. Read why supermarkets have been running out of eggs here.
A loaf of bread is also around 12% more expensive than it was last year, and the price of apples and cereal has increased at the majority of the seven big supermarkets.
Here is how the different shops compared, from the lowest increase in prices to the highest - comparing prices in March, 2022, with how much we spent on the same items in March, 2023:
1. Morrisons - 7.7% increase
Six free range eggs - £2 down to £1.39
Mature cheddar - £2.70 up to £3.15
Two pints of semi-skimmed - 95p up to £1.30
550g of spaghetti - 20p up to 28p
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.40 up to £1.45
Six Braeburn apples - £1.50 up to £1.59
Weetabix (12 pack) - £1.60 up to £1.99
TOTAL: £10.35 (2022) £11.15 (2023)
2. Lidl 11.9% increase
Six free range eggs - £1.18 up to £1.29
Mature cheddar - £2.79 same price
Two pints of semi-skimmed - 95p up to £1.30
500g of spaghetti - 20p up to 28p
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.19 up to £1.25
Six Braeburn apples - £1.19 up to £1.39
Breakfast cereal - £1.69 up to £1.99
TOTAL: £9.19 (2022) up to £10.29 (2023)
3. Aldi 13.4% increase
Six free range eggs - 99p up to £1.29
Mature cheddar - £1.99 for 220g down to £1.49
Two pints of semi-skimmed - 95p up to £1.30
50g of spaghetti - 55p up to 79p
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.19 up to £1.35
Six Braeburn apples - £1.19 up to £1.39
Weetabix (12 pack) - £1.60 up to £1.99
TOTAL: £8.46 (2022) up to £9.60 (2023)
4. Asda 21.1%
Six free range eggs - £1.20 up to £1.30
Mature cheddar - £2.10 up to £3.15
Two pints of semi-skimmed - 95p up to £1.30
550g of spaghetti - £1 down to 28p
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.25 up to £1.35
Six Braeburn apples - 95p up to £1.50
Weetabix (12 pack) - £1.49 up to £1.95
TOTAL: £8.94 (2022) £10.83 (2023)
5. Marks and Spencer 26.6% increase
Six free range eggs - £2 up to £3.50
Mature cheddar - £2 up to £2.90
Two pints of semi-skimmed - 95p up to £1.30
550g of spaghetti - 75p up to 95p
One loaf of white sliced bread - 65p up to 85p
Six Braeburn apples - £2 down to £1.70
Weetabix - £1.95 down to £1.85
TOTAL: £10.30 (2022) £13.05 (2023)
6. Tesco - 29.4% increase
Six free range eggs - £1.25 up to £1.40
Mature cheddar - £1.60 up to £3.49
Two pints of semi-skimmed - 95p up to £1.30
550g of spaghetti - 70p down to 28p
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.20 up to £1.35
Six Braeburn apples - £1.60 up to £1.70
Weetabix (12 pack) - £1.60 up to £2
TOTAL: £8.90 (2022) up to £11.52 (2023)
7. Sainsbury's 32.6%
Six free range eggs - £1.25 up to £1.40
Mature cheddar - £1.60 up to £3.50
Two pints of semi-skimmed - 95p up to £1.30
550g of spaghetti - 70p down to 56p
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.20 up to £1.35
Six Braeburn apples - £1.60 up to £1.70
Weetabix (12 pack) - £1.60 up to £2
TOTAL: £8.90 (2022) up to £11.81 (2023)
Consumer group Which? does a comparison of a large amount of items and has found that Aldi has been the cheapest in 2023 so far. Its latest figures are for February, 2023, and found that a shop for 43 items costing £74.81, on average, beat rival discounter Lidl by £2.69.
The same shop at Waitrose was £96.59, on average, making it £21.78 pricier than Aldi. Of the 'big four' supermarkets, Sainsbury's was the cheapest at £85.25. There was just 7p difference between Sainsbury's and Tesco, and Asda wasn't far behind, either.
Shoppers have been switching away from branded sauces, cereals and drinks, and opting for supermarkets' own-brand equivalents to save money at the till, research suggests. Sales of the cheapest own-label products have risen 47% over the last year, research firm Kantar said. The trend comes against the backdrop of sharply rising food prices.
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