Everyone has a theory on why Rory McIlroy hasn’t managed to get over the line at The Masters. Is it the pressure of potentially becoming just the sixth golfer to win the Career Grand Slam? Is it his preparation and pre-tournament schedule? Is it something specifically to do with his game? Or is it just bad luck?
Of course, luck plays a part. The last time he was genuinely in contention at Augusta National was 2018, when he played in the final group alongside Patrick Reed. That year, he actually made fewer bogeys or worse than Reed and managed to keep a double-bogey off the scorecard. However, Reed made 24 birdies or better compared with his 17.
Naturally, there is some year-to-year variation, but I’ve looked back at every one of his scorecards since he first competed in The Masters in 2009. To me, it seems fairly clear what the problem is: he makes too many mistakes relative to each year’s winner and double-bogeys are a problem.
McIlroy has played in 14 Masters and made at least one double or worse in 11 of those. So, he makes a double or worse at Augusta 79% of the time.
What about the winners? Only five of the last 25 Masters victors had a double-bogey on their scorecard. So, of the last 25 people to land the title, only 20% of them made a double-bogey en route to claiming the Green Jacket.
Two of those happened in the last two years. Scottie Scheffler made double on the 72nd hole in 2022 when the tournament was already wrapped up and Jon Rahm made a double on his very first hole last year – the first time a winner had started with a double-bogey.
In short, you don’t tend to win The Masters if you make a double-bogey, and concerningly for McIlroy, he’s made a double in all but one of his tournaments this year. It’s a worrying trend.
Over his last ten Masters appearances, McIlroy averages 11.2 bogeys or worse per tournament. The winners from the last ten years have averaged 8.3 – almost three fewer.
Making birdies or better is not a problem for McIlroy. In fact, over the last ten years (when making a cut) his average is 17.1, as compared to the last ten winners’ average of 19.8.
McIlroy makes enough birdies or better to win The Masters, but he needs to find a way to reduce his mistakes. Saving somewhere between 0.5 and 0.75 shots a round could be enough to land him the Career Grand Slam. At the top level, the margins are so fine.
