PLANO, Texas — Every morning when Michael Patrick drops his kids off at school, he wonders if it’s the last time he’s going to see them.
“I have three young boys, all with autism,” the 36-year-old grocery manager said after a rally at a Plano event center with Beto O’Rourke and other Democratic hopefuls. “Every day I drop them off and I have that thought.”
Patrick, a Plano resident, said a major reason Collin County should turn from red to blue is the need to curb mass shootings, such as the one that killed 19 students and two teachers in Uvalde.
“I shouldn’t have to live like that, and I trust that man to change that,” he said, tilting his head toward O’Rourke. “I think that issue should resonate with most decent people.”
Demographic shifts resulting from Collin County’s booming growth have made political contests in the once reliably red county more competitive, but Democrats haven’t found the formula to win countywide or statehouse races.
That could change this cycle after redistricting, when lawmakers dramatically redrew one of the county’s Texas House districts to favor a Democratic candidate. President Joe Biden won the area that now makes up House District 70 in the 2020 election, and capturing the statehouse seat would give Democrats a springboard to more success.
But Republicans aren’t conceding any political turf. They hope to retain the seats that favor the GOP and win the new District 70, which would signal the county isn’t as close to changing its color as some predict.
“The demographics have shifted, but not necessarily toward Democrats,” said Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo, who lives in Collin County. “If anything, it might be moving away from the far right, but the area is still conservative, but maybe not as far-right conservative as it has been.”
Lulu Seikaly, a Democrat who in 2020 unsuccessfully ran for Congress against Republican incumbent Van Taylor, said Republicans have clung to power in Collin County by labeling Democrats as socialists or too liberal.
“I was convinced in 2020 it was ready to change, but some of the messaging by Republicans scared voters away from Democrats,” she said. “But now there’s a real shot here, maybe not for the entire county, but at least in House District 70.”
Exploding population
Dallas County’s wealthy cousin to the north has become more diverse as more people move from California, New York, Illinois and other parts of the country. Jobs at companies with headquarters in the area, including Toyota, FedEx and Frito-Lay, attract the newcomers.
Census data shows Collin County had a population of nearly 500,000 in 2020. In 20 years, it doubled to over a million people. Since 2010, the population of white residents dropped to just over 50%, from 63%.
The Black and Latino populations grew marginally over the 10-year period, making up 16% and 10% of the population, respectively. The Asian population grew the most, from 11% to 17%.
Close to 30% of Collin County spoke a language other than English at home, according to 2019 data from the American Community Survey.
The population increases have changed Collin County’s culture and politics, as elected officials and political hopefuls have had to appeal to a more diverse community.
The growth has made some legislative races more competitive, but it hasn’t shaken the control Republicans have had since 1964, when former President Lyndon B. Johnson was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win in the county. The late Sam Johnson, a Vietnam War hero who served 28 years (1991-2019) in Congress, was the prototypical Collin County politician — a staunch conservative who was considered a taxpayer watchdog.
Many Republicans still fight government spending, but Collin County’s GOP lawmaker have shifted their focus in the last 20 years to social and wedge issues, including immigration and regulating the activities of transgender residents.
The change has coincided with the rise of more conservative figures, such as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the McKinney Republican who’s the county’s most notable politician.
It also made political contests a lot closer. In 2018 and 2020, Plano Republican Rep. Matt Shaheen beat Democrat Sharon Hirsch by 1%. Fellow GOP Rep. Jeff Leach won each of his races by less than 4%.
After Republicans maintained control of the Legislature in 2020, they redrew Collin County legislative maps to increase GOP voting power in Shaheen's and Leach’s districts. They accomplished this by adjusting the boundaries of retiring lawmaker Scott Sanford’s District 70 to make it more favorable for a Democratic candidate.
That means the demographic shifts and the inroads Democrats have tried to make in the county could finally net a legislative win, if Miheala Plesa can beat Republican Jamee Jolly.
Fight for new House district
Plesa, a legislative director in the House who helps lawmakers craft and push bills, said she represents the voice of the emerging Collin County.
“The time for change is now,” she told The Dallas Morning News. “Texas can’t afford weak leadership anymore. We need courageous leadership that’s going to fight for the people and issues that people care about, the kitchen-table issues.”
Plesa said Collin County voters aren’t on board with the rightward lurch state lawmakers have made to support red-meat legislation, such as the state’s abortion ban and permitless carry law, and would prefer more focus on “what voters really care about.”
“They want an independent voice, a voice that’s not tied to special interests,” she said. “They have seen what failed leadership looks like, what an unbalanced government we have right now in the state Legislature. People want voting rights, they want women’s rights, and they want to fix the grid.”
But does Plesa feel victory is secure?
“Absolutely not,” she said. “I’m a Democrat running in Texas.”
Jolly, who is casting herself as a business-minded Republican, not a right-winger, also said Collin County residents want lawmakers “to focus on those key issues that keep us awake at night, that we talk about at the kitchen table — how to pay the bills, the cost of inflation.”
“I think more people are in that space. And that’s my people,” she said at a forum sponsored by the nonpartisan education group Raise Your Hand Texas.
In an interview with The News, Jolly said the winner of the contest will have to work across party lines.
“Whoever gets elected is going to have a very unique challenge, because their district is a divided district,” she said. “You look at the numbers, it couldn’t be any more divided, but we’re working hard and our main approach is connecting with every single voter.”
All other Collin County races are in districts that significantly lean Republican, including the open District 61 seat sought by Republican Frederick Frazier and Democrat Sheena King.
Frazier, a Dallas police officer and former McKinney council member, was investigated nine times during his first decade on the force for unnecessary violence after traffic stops or during other assignments, according to documents obtained by The News. None of the inquiries led to prosecution or punishment.
Frazier, 51, was also placed on administrative leave after a June indictment on charges stemming from a Texas Department of Public Safety investigation into allegations he impersonated a compliance officer to try to force removal of his opponent’s campaign signs near a store.
The candidate’s lawyer has said Frazier did nothing wrong and looks forward to his day in court.
Frazier, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, is favored in the district, which King said deserves better.
“Our communities need honest and just people who will truly represent them and their families, and one who will help bring the positive changes that Texas needs,” she said in a statement.
Emerging battleground?
Despite the tough odds of winning in most Collin County legislative districts, Democrats hope to galvanize voters around issues that include the Supreme Court reversal of Roe v. Wade, the need for gun control policies and better access to affordable health care.
At the Plano rally with O’Rourke, Democrats were hopeful about the potential for November victories.
“Women’s rights is a big one across the whole state, not just Collin County, ‘’ said Lisa Goza, a 32-year-old data analyst from Plano. “I also think if you’re looking at Collin County, we have really high property taxes. … I think Beto has the solutions, including fixing the grid and creating extra revenue for the state that would bring down property taxes and fund education.”
High school students Lauren Maden and Kaylee Levin signed up to volunteer for O’Rourke and other Democrats’ campaigns.
“Previously it was something that felt like a long-lost dream, something that was not even worth fighting for because there’s no chance that it would ever happen,” Maden said of Collin County turning blue. “But now you feel the energy, you feel the movement. We’re in a tiny little pond and we finally have streams taking us to the Democratic blue ocean and it feels so amazing.”
O’Rourke, who got 46% of the vote in Collin County when he challenged Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, said Democrats could build on that in November.
“I’m here to tell you that not only are we going to win Collin County together, we are going to win the state of Texas on Nov. 8,” he said.
During an August visit to Allen, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said Collin County voters will choose him.
“With their help, we’re going to be turning out a record number of voters,” he said. “We’re going to keep Texas, Texas.”
On hand with Abbott, state Sen. Angela Paxton also predicted Collin County would remain red. The McKinney Republican, who is married to the attorney general, said O’Rourke’s 2020 presidential campaign exposed him as too liberal for Texas.
“Beto was an unknown when he ran here the first time,” she told The News. “Bottom line is Beto O’Rourke, since he ran here last time, he ran for president.”
Conner Barron, a member of the Texas Young Republicans and a Collin County precinct leader, acknowledged the county is changing and the party will have to change with it.
But he said it will become a “new type of red.”
“This is really an opportunity to connect people who are new to our community, who see the success and to tell them our story, and to find commonalities,” he told The News earlier this month at a Young Republicans event in McAllen. “Our conservative family values are a big part of that. And you’ve seen strengthening in our school system and those are things that are important to everyone.”
Matt Rostami, a 35-year-old Plano eye surgeon, said Republicans need better outreach to communities of color to hold power.
“This cycle is going to stay red, but I really think that Republicans need to do a little bit more reaching out to different communities,” he told The News after the District 70 forum. “I’ve always believed this country is a center-right country. It’s just when it comes to presentation, Republicans could do a better job.”
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