Sir Keir Starmer has cast himself as the heir to Sir Tony Blair after his party clinched two major by-election victories in Tory safe seats – a result that he jubilantly declared a “game-changer”.
The Labour leader insisted his party would stay “humble” – but boasted that he could see the “summit” of a general election victory, as he cited Sir Tony’s 1997 triumph.
“What I do want to do is follow in the footsteps of a leader of our party who took us from opposition into power,” he said, after two huge majorities were overturned in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
Britain’s top polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said Rishi Sunak’s party was set to be even more “heavily” defeated than in the wipeout of 1997, while former Tory chancellor George Osborne warned that the Tories faced electoral “armageddon”. Another former Conservative minister told The Independent that the results showed the party was “shot to pieces”.
The record-breaking losses sparked another round of bitter Tory infighting. While the right accused Mr Sunak of being in “denial” and pushed him to be “braver” on culture-war issues and tax, moderates pleaded with the PM against a further lurch away from the centre.
Mr Sunak conceded that the defeats were “obviously disappointing” – but said that mid-term by-elections were “always difficult” for governments as he sought to blame “local factors”.
The fresh poll calamity for Mr Sunak came as:
- Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were accused of being the “architects of disaster” and throwing the party into the electoral wilderness
- Labour grandee Peter Mandelson warned Sir Keir against “poisonous” overconfidence inside his party
- The Labour leader faced a threat from the right as Reform, formerly known as the Brexit Party, secured more votes than Labour’s majority in each of the seats
Labour’s Alistair Strathern recorded a 20.5 per cent swing to overcome a 24,000 majority in Mid Bedfordshire, while the party’s Sarah Edwards overcame a majority of 19,000 in Tamworth with a mammoth 23.9 per cent swing away from the Tories.
Labour’s Mid Bedfordshire winner Alistair Strathern with Keir Starmer— (PA)
The Mid Bedfordshire by-election was triggered after Nadine Dorries sensationally quit in protest at being denied a peerage in her ally Mr Johnson’s resignation honours list, for which she blamed Mr Sunak. The Tamworth contest was sparked when Tory MP Chris Pincher resigned after he was found to have drunkenly groped two men.
Prof Curtice said Sir Keir could be on course for an even bigger majority than in 1997 in the light of the “extraordinary swings”. He said these were “not ordinary government by-election losses” – pointing out that no government had ever lost a seat as safe as Tamworth.
“The Conservative Party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily – and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997,” said Prof Curtice.
Sir Keir said the two by-election victories constituted a “game-changer”, showing that there was nowhere in the country where his party could not “put up a fight”.
But New Labour architect Mr Mandelson warned Sir Keir that there is a “poisonous and corrosive” belief within his party that the general election is already won. He told Times Radio that overconfidence could lead Labour “into traps and mistakes”.
Starmer pictured with newly elected Labour MP for Tamworth Sarah Edwards— (PA)
Asked if he was worried about complacency, Sir Keir told Sky News there was “a mountain to climb”. “We are climbing the mountain – we can see the summit with these victories. But we’ve still got to get there,” he said.
Writing for The Independent, Tory grandee Dominic Grieve said the defeats showed that the party was now “shot to pieces”, and that Mr Sunak was suffering from the legacy of Ms Truss’s time in office and of the “charlatan” Mr Johnson.
Mr Grieve warned Mr Sunak against listening to “people on the Tory right who are the architects of the disaster”. The former cabinet minister said he feared a further “lurch to the right” if the party is thumped at the general election.
One former Tory minister described the by-election results as the “most anti-Boris Johnson vote imaginable”. They added: “This is the ultimate Boris Johnson legacy. From [his ally] Nadine Dorries to defending Chris Pincher.” He added that Labour was “heading for a three-figure majority, the way things stand”.
Former Tory justice secretary David Gauke said: “You have to look at this and say, the Tories are going out and Labour are coming in.”
He urged the PM to do more to distance himself from Mr Johnson, who was found to have lied to parliament over Partygate. “The fact that he hasn’t [distanced himself] means that the Conservatives are essentially going to be lumbered with [being seen as] the party of Partygate and the party of the mini-Budget.”
The Tory right was out in force on Friday, demanding Mr Sunak change tack. David Frost – the former Brexit minister ennobled by Mr Johnson – accused Mr Sunak of sticking to a “strategy of denial”, which he said was not working.
Right-wing Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, another big Boris backer, demanded “far-reaching change now” after the shock results. Tory peer Peter Cruddas, a staunch Boris ally, said: “Clearly Rishi Sunak isn’t working as leader of our party.”
Sunak is under pressure from the left and the right in his party— (via Reuters)
Lord Cruddas, a major donor who is currently withholding money from the party, told The Independent: “Rishi’s record is dire, and the Tories are heading for electoral disaster under Sunak. Things need to change, starting at the top.”
Tory right-winger Danny Kruger, a key figure in the New Conservatives group of MPs from the 2017 and 2019 intakes, said the results were a “wake-up call” and that Mr Sunak had to be “braver” on immigration, net zero, and other so-called culture-war topics.
But Tory moderates were scathing of efforts to push the party further to the right. Former cabinet minister Robert Buckland said Mr Sunak was “on the money” with his focus on inflation – but warned against clutching at culture-war issues.
“Focus on economic security. The culture-war stuff is the hard left versus the far left – it should have nothing to do with us,” he said. “Colleagues have to trust Rishi Sunak to listen to concerns, rather than going into a blind panic.”
Tory peer and polling guru Robert Hayward said Mr Sunak must “keep calm and carry on” by focusing on economic recovery – urging him not to get pulled into culture-war distractions by those on the right.
“The maxim ‘Keep calm and carry on’ would be the best piece of advice, because the public is still angry about the period between 2020 and 2022, and a period of calm, stable government is what they are looking for,” he said.
Former No 10 chief of staff Gavin Barwell said the results showed that Mr Sunak’s “pivot” away from net zero policies and his Tory conference speech have had “no impact”. He said it was now clearly “a mistake” to have watered down climate-change targets.
Conservative chair Greg Hands claimed that the low turnout meant there was no “enthusiasm for Labour” – and insisted that Mr Sunak was doing a “very good job”.
It came as backbench MPs argued among themselves in a Tory WhatsApp group. According to Sky News, one MP wrote: “Come the general, the public who sat on their hands will come out to back us.” But another Tory MP told the broadcaster some colleagues were “deluded”.
Pleading for unity, one former Tory minister told The Independent: “Starmer is a dud – he doesn’t inspire. The Conservative Party needs to restore its self-discipline and support the PM.”
Meanwhile, Reform UK leader Richard Tice claimed that the results, which saw his party finish third in Tamworth – getting more votes than the number by which Labour won – showed that Reform could have a “significant effect” at the next election. He also promised that his party would stand in every seat.
Reform is the rebranded Brexit Party. The decision by its then leader Nigel Farage to stand down in hundreds of seats in the 2019 general election is credited with giving Mr Johnson his 80-seat majority.
