Indulge me if you will and fast forward to Friday, September 1, 2023.
It’s been two-and-a-half years since the complaint which first prompted Operation Branchform, the inquiry into SNP accounts. We’ve just witnessed a long summer of wild speculation and innuendo from Holyrood’s opposition parties and a string of opinion polls show a definite erosion of support for the SNP.
Professor John Curtice – Scotland’s revered polling expert – has published research confirming the incessant allegations are the underlying cause of the SNP’s stuttering polling. Then Police Scotland drop a bombshell: Operation Branchform has now concluded having found no evidence of illegality.
Subsequently, no charges will be brought. All suspects are cleared of any criminal wrongdoing. Case closed.
Now, if you have instantly dismissed the above as the desperate wishful thinking of a former employee of the SNP at Holyrood, fair enough. I couldn’t blame you for holding that opinion and the coming weeks may prove it to be exactly that – fanciful.
So, I’m not saying Branchform is a wild goose chase – but what if it is? Surely, it’s worth considering. Actually, if we cherish the presumption of innocence, then a no charges outcome must be at least considered.
And the fallout would have serious consequences for the investigating authorities. Given the grim spectacle at the house Peter Murrell shares with Nicola Sturgeon and at the party HQ, it’s inconceivable the authorities would be so cavalier without slam dunk evidence, right?
Not necessarily. One word counters that assumption: Rangers. The legal costs over the wrongful pursuit of those involved in the
administration and purchase of the Ibrox club are upwards of £50million. So, the authorities have previous for high-profile inquiries collapsing in scandal.
If they have spectacularly misjudged this one too, then the reputational cost will be far more substantial than the cash spent on manpower. By the way, I’m not criticising the investigation itself. If the police receive a complaint, it’s their duty to investigate.
Rather, it is the extraordinary manner in which Operation Branchform has been conducted which is concerning. The use of forensic tents and a whole platoon of plod at the house turned a routine process into a grotesque circus, compounded by the storming of SNP HQ.
So, where do we stand now? Despite much speculation, what me, you and everyone else officially KNOWS about the inquiry is the sum total of sod all.
The only people who actually know are on the inquiry team so we must wait for the investigation to conclude. What I do know, however, is something of the character of the two men arrested to date and, in Peter Murrell and Colin Beattie, two less likely master criminals you will struggle to meet.
Firstly, Peter’s loyalty to his wife is unquestionable. First minister Sturgeon and her husband lived under crushingly intense scrutiny.
It is inconceivable to me that Peter would so much as consider doing something dodgy lest it rebound and put his wife in jeopardy. Colin is no-one’s fool. He is a capable, cautious and diligent MSP who values his integrity.
So I’m prepared to gamble the Foote £5 on no charges at the end of all this. Should that bet be a winner, then the police and Crown Office will find themselves together in a very deep hole. Police diligently going about their business is one thing. What happened at the FM’s home is something else entirely.
The watching public may speculate as to what has happened and the Scots Tories have been nauseatingly shameless in exploiting it. The Tories know they are the real party of corruption.
They are about as straight as Sherlock Holmes’ pipe. What’s more, they know Scotland knows this. So, they try to level the field by painting everyone else as corrupt as they are.
It’s their last best hope of avoiding looming electoral extinction. But no charges would change that. It may also bring the SNP a silver lining to what has been a very dark and long-lasting cloud.
It would trigger the public’s innate sense of fair play, possibly leading to another surge in SNP membership and a tidal wave of support at the next election. That would be the ultimate irony.
It would seal the fate of the Scottish Tories and see off the lamentable Douglas Ross … who is unquestionable guilty of fraudulently claiming to be a competent leader for longer than Operation Branchform lasted.
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