I returned to my old school in Rome last January; an experience that lifted the spirits. I was there to talk to students about some of the issues I covered in my book on the climate challenges facing Europe. By the end of that afternoon, I felt reassured, and not just because of how engaged these 16- and 17-year-old students appeared, asking well-informed questions and commenting on my work. It was because behind many of their interventions there was something very personal. They were not discussing abstract concepts unrelated to their lives, but were well aware that this is their Europe and their planet, and that it is up to them to contribute to save both. They wanted to know how best to fight back against Russian disinformation; how to change their lifestyles to make the European green deal a reality; and how to contribute to a more rational and humane approach to migration.
Yes, Europe was at war, with no end in sight to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the energy crisis was in full swing, as Europeans waded through their first winter without Russian gas. And it was still unclear whether the return of energy security to the agenda would have shelved climate action. Important elections loomed, especially those in Turkey, Spain and Poland.
Over the subsequent months, many of these issues turned out for the better. European governments maintained their support for Ukraine. Germany in particular, while rightly criticised for moving too little and too late, now ranks second to the US in terms of military assistance to Kyiv. Whereas at the beginning of the war US aid far outstripped that from Europe, now Europe, collectively, surpasses the US.
The peak of the energy crisis is now behind us. There is some way to go to definitively cut the fossil-fuel umbilical cord with Russia, but the fact that Europe has largely weaned itself off Russian gas is a remarkable achievement. The legislative agenda aimed at ensuring at least a 55% reduction of emissions by 2030 is basically accomplished, with some of the targets, for instance those concerning renewables, now even more ambitious than when the war began.
Photograph: Omar Marques/Getty Images
Elections in 2023 also brought some encouraging news. True, the opposition in Turkey failed to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the pro-Russian populist Robert Fico returned in Slovakia, while in the Netherlands the hard-right Geert Wilders unexpectedly surged in the polls. However, in Spain the feared victory of the People’s party with the hard-right Vox did not pan out, while in Poland, Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform won the elections and has now begun the essential task of restoring the rule of law in the country.
But even for a Euro-optimist like me, the dark clouds of the past few months have really tested my confidence. In Ukraine, the west has reached the end of its current strategy, which was (temporarily) sufficient to prevent Ukraine from losing the war, but a far cry from providing Kyiv with the support it needs to win.
While Russia has put its economy on a war footing aimed at waging a long campaign against the west, in Washington and in many European capitals magical thinking about negotiations has died hard. The need to change tack on Ukraine is only dawning now – all the more so given the risk of the US stalling, with Congress still holding $60bn of assistance to Ukraine hostage and Donald Trump threatening to withdraw it altogether if he returns to the White House.
Some steps are being taken, with the opening of EU accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. And I am sure that this month an agreement will be reached on the €50bn in EU aid for Ukraine that was blocked by Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. This is all necessary, but it is insufficient to enable Ukraine to win this war and for Europe to defend itself against a Russian threat that will persist for the foreseeable future.
On climate, the political headwinds are building. The European green deal’s legislative agenda is largely complete and Cop28 did at least mention the need to “transition away” from fossil fuels. But with the hard right gaining ground in Europe ahead of June’s European elections, there are real questions concerning implementation, let alone whether Europe will begin tackling the wider sustainability agenda, beginning with reform of agriculture.
In the Middle East, Europe has been an utter disaster. The criticism used to be levelled at EU governments that they were “payers but not players” in the Middle East, acting as a poor second fiddle to the US. The US, for good or ill, was the major power to be reckoned with in the region. Today, the US remains the “indispensable power”, but it is unable to dispense anything at all, resisting a ceasefire for Israel’s war that so far has resulted in more than 20,000 deaths and untold destruction, while remaining far from its declared (and probably unachievable) goal of destroying Hamas.
Europe has revealed itself in all its weakness, repeatedly dividing itself at the UN between countries that support, reject and abstain from calling for a ceasefire, and loosely tagging on to Washington rather than mustering a position of its own. I was struck during a recent trip to the Middle East how no one mentions Europe at all, certainly not before discussing first the roles of the US, China, Russia and even India, alongside those of regional players. Europe’s approach to war in the Middle East has been as unethical as it is irrational, making no sense either in terms of norms, interests or even a genuine desire to support Israel’s long-term security.
At the end of December, during an award ceremony for a youth essay competition sponsored by my institute, one of the winners reminded us in his speech about the value of hope and the need to latch on to it in the darkest moments. We have gone through dark times in the recent past, with the economic crisis followed by a surge of nationalist populism and Brexit. During the pandemic and the first year of war in Ukraine, Europe pulled together, and it is only in the past months that it has wavered again. Like the students at my old school, Davide was right: positive change is still possible, but we first have to believe in it.
Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian Europe columnist
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