It would be nice to claim that the near complete accuracy of my prediction of the result of the Conservative Party’s vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson was a glorious triumph of dedicated political science: I predicted that 211 MPs would vote for him to 147 against (the actual number was 148 – I assumed one MP might not vote).
But alas, that would be claiming too much. My forecast involved much guesswork and a fair bit of hunch, combining what the Guardian newspaper has called “Mystic Meg” crystal ball-gazing with mathematical modelling.
Insofar as serious calculations were involved, they involved adding up the number of pledges from Conservative MPs for or against the prime minister and comparing those tallies to Theresa May’s position when she faced a similar vote in December 2018. Of course, many MPs did not declare their intentions, but the basic picture could be ascertained via those who did.
