How does Tadej Pogačar win Paris-Roubaix? It’s the million dollar question, one that might linger throughout a career that has already expanded to preposterous proportions but that might always feel incomplete without that cobblestone trophy on his mantlepiece.
The general consensus would dictate that the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider needs to arrive alone in the Roubaix velodrome, but the world champion challenged that assertion as he spoke to the media on the eve of the Hell of the North.
“For sure, anyone would prefer to come solo in Roubaix, but after such a long race, even in a small group, I can pull off some kind of good sprint, if there’s a good moment,” Pogačar said after the teams presentation in Compiègne.
Unlike the Tour of Flanders, where he has turned the Oude Kwaremont into his own personal runway, the flatlands of the Hell of the North offer comparatively little opportunity to burn rivals off his wheel. Pogačar made a sensational debut in Roubaix last year, the multiple Tour de France winner riding away with two-time winner Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech), who became a three-time winner when Pogačar misjudged a corner and allowed him to solo towards the velodrome.
For all his strength, the prospect of dropping Van der Poel on flat cobbles – very much the Dutchman’s home terrain – remains a tall order. And the prospect of out-sprinting him – or even the likes of Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) – an even taller order.
But Pogačar defended his sprint on several occasions, clearly challenging the pre-race narrative that has been building.
“When you go in the sprint after such a long race, there’s so much fatigue from the race before that anything can happen in the sprint,” he insisted.
There is ample evidence to support Pogačar’s theory. Van der Poel famously lost the 2021 Tour of Flanders in a two-up sprint against Kasper Asgreen, a massive shock at the time. It actually happened twice in the same year, as Van der Poel went to the Roubaix velodrome with Sonny Colbrelli and Florian Vermeersch, and finished third.
Pogačar himself has mustered strong sprints towards the end of hard races on a number of occasions, not least last month when he pipped Tom Pidcock – who has outsprinted the likes of Van Aert to win Classics – to the line at Milan-San Remo. Pogačar’s record against Van der Poel in big Classics is less convincing. He was third behind Van Aert and Van der Poel at the 2023 E3 Classic, while at the 2025 Milan-San Remo he was third behind Van der Poel and Filippo Ganna.
“I hope many things are possible tomorrow, but yeah, dropping Mathieu is going to be a hard one, but I will try,” Pogačar said.
“Of course, a solo is almost guaranteed until the last moment,” he added, knowing the feeling well. “It’s a lot of trembling if you come with someone else to the velodrome for victory. I can imagine it’s something totally different.
“I don't have a lot of track experience, but it's already like a dream scenario to come to the velodrome in the winning move.”
Pogačar’s runner-up finish last year, followed by his Milan-San Remo breakthrough last month, have brought the Slovenian to the cusp of becoming only the fourth rider in history to win all five Monument Classics during their career. Only Paris-Roubaix stands between him and cycling immortality alongside the great Belgians Eddy Merckx, Rik Van Looy, and Roger De Vlaeminck.
But this narrative has apparently not landed with Pogačar himself.
“Yeah, honestly, I don't even know who's in that club,” he said.
“Suddenly everybody talks about some sort of club, but yeah, it’s a Monument, we go for the win, like we do in any race we start. We didn't succeed here yet, so for us it would be amazing if we can win it one day, but we don't sit on the bus or eat dinner and talk about some club.”
In any case, wherever it leaves him in the pantheon of cycling greats, Pogačar is all-in to cross that finish line first inside the Roubaix velodrome.
“After last year, second place gave me a big boost in confidence that I could fight for victory in the next years, so I’m here tomorrow to try for victory,” he said.
“Not much has changed since last year. I mean, the equipment we change a bit, but the rest I think is all the same. There's a bit more experience from my side. But the motivation is the same, and the hunger for victory is there.”
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