The “hyper-violent” Typhoon Gaemi was made fiercer and more likely to strike by the climate crisis, scientists have found. They said “Asia will become an increasingly dangerous place to live until fossil fuels are replaced”.
The typhoon hit the Philippines, Taiwan and Hunan province in China in late July, with floods and landslides destroying homes, killing at least 100 people and affecting millions. Winds reaching 145mph (233 km/h) sank two large ships, while floods in Manila were as deep as a one-storey building.
Analysis by researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) found Typhoon Gaemi’s wind speeds were about 9mph (14km/h) faster due to human-caused global heating and that the burning of fossil fuels caused Gaemi’s rainfall to be up to 14% higher.
Tropical cyclones draw energy from warm ocean waters and the team found that the hot sea surface temperatures that fuelled Gaemi would have been virtually impossible without the climate crisis.
“Fossil fuel-driven warming is ushering in a new era of bigger, deadlier typhoons,” said Dr Ben Clarke, of Imperial College London and part of the WWA team. “The hard truth is we will see more devastating storms like Typhoon Gaemi as the climate warms [and] Asia will become an increasingly dangerous place to live until fossil fuels are replaced with renewable energy.”
Dr Friederike Otto, also an academic at Imperial College London, said: “Hyper-violent typhoons like Gaemi are bringing suffering to Asia. To lessen the impacts of typhoons, Asia needs to reduce inequality and protect the most vulnerable people.”
Since 1900 there has been a 30% increase in the number of typhoons as intense as Gaemi in the north-west Pacific Ocean. Carbon emissions from fossil fuels have continued to increase in recent years and each of the 13 months to June were the hottest recorded.
The researchers used weather data, climate models and peer-reviewed methods to compare how typhoons have changed between today’s climate, with about 1.2C of global heating, and the cooler preindustrial climate.
They also used Imperial College’s storm model to investigate the influence of climate change on Gaemi’s powerful winds. It is the first time such a study has looked at all aspects of a tropical cyclone. The team of 23 scientists included some from the Philippines and China.
Many hundreds of studies attributing climate change to extreme weather have been undertaken, covering heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods and storms. They include a growing number of otherwise impossible events and demonstrate how human-caused heating has supercharged extreme weather across the world.
Maja Vahlberg, a climate risk consultant for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said significant strides had been made in implementing flood protection and emergency response plans in the countries affected by Typhoon Gaemi.
She said: “However, as we continue to confront the realities of climate change, the challenge before us is becoming increasingly daunting. We’re now witnessing rainfall events so extreme that they surpass the capacities of some of our current systems.”
Critical areas requiring further work were dealing with increasing numbers of people living in vulnerable informal settlements – shantytowns – in low-lying areas, such as around Manila, Vahlberg said, adding: “We have the knowledge, and now we must muster the will to act. The future and safety of millions depends on the decisions that we make today.”
