The Briefing:
- Polo, a Category 3 hurricane with 185 km/h (115 mph) winds, is forecast to reach the Baja California Sur coast late this afternoon or early this evening, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
- Traffic and movement stop at 2 p.m. in communities across Comondú, Mulegé and Loreto, and residents are told to stay home or in shelters, per coverage of the president's morning press conference.
- The NHC projects 6 to 12 inches of rain on the peninsula and a second landfall in Sonora between late Monday night and early Tuesday.
Polo right now: position, wind and heading
As of the 5:00 a.m. peninsular-time advisory, Polo's center sat about 175 km (110 miles) southwest of Cabo San Lázaro, moving north-northeast at 17 km/h, according to the NHC. Sustained winds reached 185 km/h and the estimated minimum central pressure was 958 millibars. Forecasters expect a turn toward the northeast during the afternoon.
Landfall: somewhere between Category 2 and 3
Laura Velázquez Alzúa, Mexico's federal civil protection chief, told President Claudia Sheinbaum's morning press conference that the first impact would come after 4 p.m., according to Quadratín, and that Polo could arrive as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.
The NHC expects Polo to keep an intensity close to major-hurricane level when it reaches the peninsula, with entry onto land late in the afternoon or early in the evening. In practice, the gap between the two categories is only a few kilometers per hour: Category 3 starts at 178 km/h (111 mph), and winds of that force can seriously damage even well-built homes.
Where movement stops at 2 p.m.
The list presented at the conference includes Santa Rosalía, Loreto, Heroica Mulegé, San Bruno, Punta Chivato, Palo Verde, Isla San Marcos, San Juan Bautista and San Javier, among other localities. For the municipality of Comondú, Velázquez asked communities and surrounding areas to remain in their homes or shelters after 2 p.m. Beaches are also restricted and maritime activity has been suspended.
What to do if your home is not safe
Official guidance is to stay off the streets, keep away from objects the wind could tear loose, and go to a temporary shelter if the home poses a risk. Authorities also warned of possible power and internet outages.
The state has 169 temporary shelters ready: Mulegé (50) and Los Cabos (44) hold most of them, followed by La Paz (38), Comondú (29) and Loreto (8), per Noventa Grados' Sunday report. In the same tally, the Navy reported 2,282 personnel plus six emergency-response brigades totaling 600 members, and the Defense Ministry listed 4,686 troops from the Army, Air Force and National Guard.
Rain: the hazard that outlasts the wind
The NHC forecasts totals of 6 to 12 inches (roughly 150 to 305 mm) in parts of Baja California Sur and 4 to 6 inches (100 to 150 mm) across central and southern Sonora, with maximums near 8 inches, about 200 mm. It warns of flash flooding and mudslides, especially on steep terrain, along with destructive waves and storm surge on the coast.
Sonora: the second landfall
After crossing the peninsula, Polo would enter the Gulf of California. Velázquez said the second impact would hit the central Sonora coast on Tuesday, Sept. 29. The NHC places that arrival in southern Sonora between late Monday night and early Tuesday, expects Polo to still be a hurricane, and keeps a hurricane warning up for the mainland coast between Bahía Kino and Huatabampito.
A track that can still shift
The details in this report reflect information available on the morning of Monday, Sept. 28. The NHC issues its advisories in peninsular time, one hour behind central Mexico, and its next full advisory was scheduled for 8:00 a.m. peninsular time. Timing and intensity may change as new bulletins arrive.
