The National Hurricane Center's forecast for what would later become Hurricane Milton showcased remarkable accuracy, with the initial prediction only a few miles off from the storm's actual landfall location. This forecast was issued when the storm was still over 850 miles away from Florida, more than four days before it hit.
The first forecast, released on a Saturday, anticipated the storm developing into a hurricane and making landfall near Bradenton, just south of Tampa, on the following Wednesday. Ultimately, Hurricane Milton made landfall a mere 12 miles from the predicted location in Sarasota.
It is noteworthy that the average error in NHC forecasts five days out is typically over 150 miles, making Milton's forecast significantly more accurate than the norm.
Despite the overall precision of the forecast, there were challenges along the way. The storm's movements caused shifts and wobbles that altered the expected landfall location, oscillating north and south of Tampa Bay as it traversed the Gulf of Mexico. These variations had substantial implications for projected storm surge impacts in the densely populated Tampa Bay region, leading to evacuations being ordered for millions of residents along hundreds of miles of Florida's western coast.
The intensity of Hurricane Milton also posed a challenge for forecasters. While the initial forecast predicted a 110 mph landfall, which closely aligned with the storm's eventual 120 mph intensity upon hitting Siesta Key, the rapid intensification to 180 mph was not initially anticipated.
On Monday, Hurricane Milton reached a peak intensity of 180 mph, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever observed in the Atlantic Basin and surpassing the initial forecasted peak intensity by 70 mph.
