ORLANDO, Fla. – Ida grew into a category 1 hurricane Friday afternoon as it made landfall along Cuba’s Isle of Youth, the National Hurricane Center said. It is expected to become a major hurricane by Sunday night before making landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft identified Ida’s maximum sustained winds had intensified from 45 mph to 75 mph Friday, said the National Hurricane Center. Ida is moving northwest at 15 mph and has tropical-storm-force winds reaching up to 90 miles from the center.
The ninth named storm of the season formed into a tropical storm Thursday evening as is about 30 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, where the Cuban government has issued a Hurricane Warning, as well as the Pinar del Rio and Artemisa provinces, according to the NHC’s 2 p.m. update.
Ida’s formation is atypical and early as the ninth storm of the year on average don’t form before Oct. 4, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric records. Although the early formation does seem to fall in line with the NOAA’s pre-season hurricane prediction of experiencing an above-average production of storms.
Ida is expected to keep strengthening into a hurricane thanks to warm sea-surface temperatures between 82 and 83 degrees — the right warmth for tropical growth.
Although, models show Ida surging in strength before hitting the Gulf Coast Sunday and developing into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph by Sunday evening. Among the factors making this possible is the bathtub like conditions of the Gulf of Mexico. A patch of water just south of the Gulf Coast is displaying sea-surface temperatures of 86 degrees.
Projections show Ida making landfall along Louisiana’s coast, but forecasters believe Ida could bring a dangerous storm surge to the Pelican State as well as Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.
Many concerned with Louisiana’s coast have begun sounding alarm bells for coastal residents as the potential for a major hurricane threat lingers closer, said Eric Blake, a hurricane scientist out of Colorado State University.
“You can’t ask for a worse recipe for a destructive hurricane,” Blake said on Twitter.” Not much shear, and a track right up the deepest, very warm water (using ocean heat content). There is extremely serious high-end hurricane potential here!”
Other groups are also urging caution such as the Canjun Navy Ground Force, which gained national attention in 2017 after Hurricane Harvey brought deep flood waters to parts of Texas and Louisiana. The volunteer group performed water rescues for those who didn’t evacuate using their volunteer privately owned boats.
The NHC issued a Storm Surge Watch for much of the Gulf Coast including from Sabine Pass, Texas to the Alabama-Florida border.
In addition to its Hurricane Warning, Cuba also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque and Havana.
Meanwhile, the NHC is also monitoring several system with potential to become tropical storms including an elongated broad trough of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 650 miles east of Bermuda.
A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system enters a favorable Atlantic zone. Meteorologists give the system a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 60% chance of doing so over the next five days. The storm is expected to speed up Sunday.
Also, a tropical wave midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is booming with disorganized thunderstorms. Meteorologists are much more confident in the disturbance’s development into a tropical depression in the next two days.
The NHC gave it a 80% chance of development over the next two to five days.
Finally, the NHC expects a new tropical wave to emerge of the west African coast by the middle of next week, the center said in its 2 p.m. update. Development could be possible toward the end of next week when the system moves into a more favorable environment. The wave has a 20% chance of forming in five days.
After Ida, the next three tropical storm names on the list are Julian, Kate and Larry.
____
