ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center continues to track one system in the Atlantic and one in the Caribbean with potential to form into the season’s next tropical or subtropical depression as they mix with surrounding weather systems.
The chances of a Caribbean formation comes from what’s expected to be a combination of an existing deep-layer trough that’s been stationary from eastern Hispaniola to the central Caribbean in the last day along with a tropical wave moving west across the eastern Caribbean.
The trough already features active thunderstorms and when combined with the wave, it could expand its intensity affecting Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic through Friday, forecasters said.
“Excessive heavy rainfall will likely result in localized flooding across portions of these islands through at least Thursday evening,” said NHC lead forecaster Scott Stripling.
The National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for parts of western Puerto Rico through Thursday morning. The island is still recovering from the heavy rains that flooded the island during Hurricane Fiona earlier this season.
By Friday, the merger of the two systems will have it shifting west and weakening while over the weekend, an area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward across the central Caribbean Sea,” Stripling said.
The NHC gives it a 50% chance of forming in the next five days.
North of the system in the southwest Atlantic Ocean is a low pressure system extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea north that continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
A surface low pressure system is expected to form to its north that could allow for subtropical development.
“A subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the system moves northward, then meanders to the west or southwest of Bermuda,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 40% chance of formation in the next two to five days.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. The season has produced 12 named systems including Hurricane Ian that struck Florida last month.
The next named storm would be Tropical Storm Lisa.
