As warnings go, it was not a very veiled one. After speculation that Rishi Sunak could move Jeremy Hunt out of No 11 to make way for a fresher face, the chancellor gave a broadcast interview about the economy, saying on Thursday: “The plan is working, but what we have to do as a government is that we stick to that plan, we don’t veer around like a shopping trolley.”
It will not have escaped notice within the Conservatives that “shopping trolley” was the nickname given to Boris Johnson by his former aide Dominic Cummings, on account of his chaotic and unpredictable approach to governing. Hunt’s underlying message to his party appeared to be: “Stick with me and our strategy or create an impression of Johnsonian chaos in an election year.”
Some in No 10 have never been comfortable with Hunt in post and would prefer a more political player in the job who is a closer ally of the prime minister. But while Sunak may have been tempted to replace Hunt with a chancellor more akin to his own rightwing, tax-cutting instincts on the economy, there does not appear within the party to be any massive clamour for change in No 11 at this point.
The Eurosceptic right is more focused on blaming the Bank of England for failing to notice that inflation was coming. Hunt also appeared to address concerns on the right about the debanking of Nigel Farage by asking the financial regulator to investigate the scale of the problem. This was trailed by the chancellor on GB News and swiftly followed by a tweet of gratitude from Farage in a move that appeared designed to dampen the clamour for action among Tories worried about a re-entry into frontline politics by the former Ukip leader.
Sunak and Hunt’s economic plan – bearing down on inflation even while risking a recession – is not being challenged in a widespread way by backbench Tories, in spite of worries about the party fighting the next election against the backdrop of a recession. There is a calculation that a greater proportion of the public is being hit hard by the cost of living squeeze and rising prices than may be affected by job losses in a short recession.
However, if Labour persists with its lead on economic competence, and the economic conditions do not allow for pre-election tax giveaways, then the Tory calls for change are likely to get louder over the next year. Even if a recession is avoided or short, Hunt will have little wriggle room for tax cuts in this autumn’s fiscal event, with the economy flatlining, and may not even be able to provide them on the scale his party will want by the spring.
He may be safe at the reshuffle pencilled for the early autumn, but there is a chance of a second round reshuffle before the election next year. Sunak will at that point be likely to weigh the merits of keeping stability at the top versus a new-look team not associated with the baggage of dealing with economic woes.
