Humza Yousaf is fighting for his political life as he faces two no confidence motions submitted against him and his government in the space of 24 hours.
Yousaf insisted he would not resign as first minister and vowed to fight on, amid intense speculation about his leadership after he axed the SNP’s governing agreement with the Scottish Greens on Thursday morning, provoking a furious backlash that resulted in his former partners pledging to vote with the Tories against him.
Holyrood arithmetic now leaves the deciding vote with one woman, Ash Regan, whom Yousaf beat to the SNP leadership last March and who has since defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba party.
After two days of high political drama, Yousaf was in bullish mood on Friday, telling reporters at an event in Dundee: “I will absolutely be taking us into a general election and 2026 Scottish parliament elections.”
He told Sky News: “I intend absolutely to fight that vote of no confidence, I’ve got every intention of winning that vote of no confidence.”
Yousaf offered an olive branch to the Scottish Greens, saying he had “heard their anger” after he tore up the Bute House agreement brokered by Nicola Sturgeon in 2021, blindsiding supporters and opponents.
It is understood that the extent of the Greens’ fury took Yousaf by surprise, but he maintained on Friday that ending the agreement was the right thing to do. He had faced increasing frustration within his own party about a host of electorally unpopular policies championed by the Greens.
He said he would be speaking to the Scottish Green co-leaders, Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater – who on Thursday denounced him as weak and accused him of caving in to the right of his party – about what had happened, saying: “I empathise with their position because I understand how they must be feeling.”
But it remains the case that a motion of no confidence in his leadership brought against him by the Scottish Conservatives, which is likely to be debated next Wednesday or Thursday, will bring Yousaf to the brink of defeat.
The SNP is two votes short of a majority at Holyrood, and while the presiding officer always votes with the status quo, Yousaf will need to secure the backing of Regan, who defected last October in protest at the party’s stance on gender reform and lack of progress on independence.
Regan, who revealed she has not spoken to Yousaf since she lost out to him in last year’s leadership contest, said she would “relish the opportunity” to discuss a possible alignment of the centre-right Alba party with the SNP.
Meanwhile the Greens, who reported a surge in membership over the past day, are “unequivocal” about voting against Yousaf, according to party sources, while Harvie said it was up to the SNP to find a suitable leader.
“Very clearly, he [Yousaf] doesn’t have the confidence of parliament. We said very clearly the responsibility of the decision is on him. He needs to bear the consequences of that reckless and damaging decision,” Harvie said.
Yousaf said he would urge the Greens to reconsider but he must also maintain the support of colleagues across the spectrum within the SNP who have praised him for “resetting priorities” as the general election approaches, with heavy losses already predicted for the SNP at the hands of a resurgent Scottish Labour.
While the Greens have accused the SNP of moving to the right and away from Sturgeon’s progressive agenda that Yousaf pledged to stick to when he was first elected, there is also speculation that being seen to side with the Tories against the only other pro-independence party at Holyrood could damage the Greens at the ballot box.
On Friday morning, Scottish Labour applied further pressure by tabling its own motion of no confidence in the Scottish government, which the Scottish Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have since pledged to support. Unlike the Conservative motion against Yousaf, if Labour’s were successful it would require the first minister and his ministers to resign. If the Scottish parliament cannot agree on another first minister within 28 days, this would trigger an election.
Speaking to Channel 4 News on Friday evening, Yousaf said he “certainly wouldn’t rule out” a Holyrood election. “We’re on an election footing – we’re prepared if that’s required,” he said.
