With the police investigating SNP finances and his party’s poll rating on the slide, First Minister Humza Yousaf is in desperate need of political momentum. Challenging the UK Government’s veto of the Holyrood bill on gender recognition will not aid this cause.
During the recent SNP leadership contest, during which the candidates nearly destroyed each other, Yousaf won applause for promising to stand up to the Tories on the gender bill. SNP members liked his tough talk on defending the Scottish Parliament and he put distance between himself and Kate Forbes on LGBT rights.
The ordinary voter will be a harder sell for Yousaf. A poll in December found opposition to key parts of the bill, such as scrapping the requirement of a medical diagnosis and lowering the age from 18 to 16.
Separate polling data from February underlined the problems for the First Minister, with only three per cent saying gender recognition was among the most important issues to them. If the Scottish Government prevails, there will be no red carpet waiting for SNP candidates outside Westminster polling booths.
If Yousaf loses, he will be blasted for wasting public money during a cost of living crisis. Coming on the back of the Supreme Court shutting the door on Holyrood’s ability to stage indyref2, the Government could gain a reputation for frittering cash away on doomed causes.
This is not to say MSPs were wrong to pass the legislation in the first place. The status quo is demeaning for trans people and urgently needs to be overhauled. It also sticks in the throat to see the Tories, some of whose parliamentarians are anti-abortion, suddenly style themselves as champions of women’s rights.
But whether a protracted and costly court battle will deliver fairness for trans people and peace of mind for the critics remains unclear. A plan B could be for both Governments to hammer out a tighter Bill which deals with bad actors like sex offenders.
Failure to do so could result in no change at all - a disaster for one of the country’s most vulnerable minorities. Previous SNP leaders were adept at ensuring public opinion was on their side when they challenged the UK Government.
Gender reform is a difficult issue in the court of public opinion and Yousaf’s tough start in the job looks set to continue.
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