Humza Yousaf is expected to stand down as Scotland’s first minister on Monday lunchtime after failing to muster enough votes to survive a vote of confidence later this week.
Yousaf is due to make a statement at noon at Bute House, his official residence in Edinburgh, only four days after hosting a press conference there to announce he was tearing up the Bute House coalition agreement with the Scottish Greens.
That announcement on Thursday morning precipitated the crisis that has since enveloped his government, blindsiding his colleagues. Brokered by Nicola Sturgeon after the 2021 Holyrood election, that deal had cemented a progressive pro-independence majority in the Scottish parliament.
The Greens reacted furiously, immediately agreeing to support a motion of no confidence in Yousaf’s leadership brought by the Scottish Conservatives.
His considerations are further complicated by a second no-confidence vote against the entire Scottish government, brought by Scottish Labour, which would require the first minister and his ministers to resign if successful.
With the SNP two votes short of a majority at Holyrood, the parliamentary arithmetic is such that this leaves Yousaf dependent on the vote of the former SNP minister Ash Regan, who defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba party last October in protest at the SNP’s stance on gender recognition reform and lack of progress on independence.
The SNP’s predicament has been worsened by uncertainties over who could take over as interim first minister and lead the party if he stood down.
With the party facing its second leadership contest in a little over a year, Yousaf’s deputy first minister, Shona Robison, is second in command in the government but does not hold the same post in the SNP. The party’s depute leader is Keith Brown, a former minister.
Party officials have tried to persuade Sturgeon’s highly experienced former deputy, John Swinney, to take on the role but he is said to be reluctant for personal reasons. Swinney led the SNP in the early 2000s but quit after finding the job too gruelling.
A leadership election is likely to be dominated by Kate Forbes, the former finance secretary who was Yousaf’s closest rival in last year’s leadership contest.
She represents a more socially conservative and economically centrist position, and would probably steer the Scottish government away from many of the socially liberal policies Yousaf and Sturgeon championed.
With the prospect of a deal with the party of the former first minster, who has been a vocal critic of Yousaf’s leadership, unpalatable and the Greens remaining unequivocal in their position on Sunday, the first minster must decide whether to dare these other pro-independence parties to bring down an SNP leader or step aside now.
Patrick Harvie, the leader of the Scottish Greens, reiterated calls for Yousaf to stand down on Monday. “I don’t think Humza Yousaf any more is in a position to be able to lead,” he told the Radio 4 Today programme. “I don’t think there is anything that Humza Yousaf will be able to say to restore the trust he has broken.”
Harvie expressed regret over the breakdown in the coalition but described the first minister’s position as nevertheless untenable. “Everybody understands how deeply regrettable and unnecessary this whole situation was,” he said. “I think it is really important that we return to stability.”
