A FRESH poll has predicted the result of every seat in the General Election, with the Tories set to retain just one seat in Scotland.
The analysis by Survation suggests Labour are on course for a 262-seat majority in the Commons, with the Tories winning just 72 seats – less than half their previous worst election result since their formation nearly two centuries ago.
In Scotland, the poll – commissioned by Best for Britain – shows the contest is wide open but crucially it is the first poll by any company since February to show the SNP ahead of Labour in votes – 37% to 30%.
The SNP would win 37 seats and remain Scotland’s largest party, it suggests, but Labour would be behind by less than 2.5% on vote share in three seats and less than 5% behind in a further four.
The poll predicts Labour winning 14 seats – all in the central belt – but if those marginal ones were to go their way it could be as many as 21.
Crucially, it is forecast in this study the SNP will hang onto Na h-Eileanan an Iar, a key Labour target.
It also suggests John Swinney’s party will retain all the seats in Glasgow but will lose South Lanarkshire with Hamilton and Clyde Valley and East Kilbride and Strathaven both turning red while Labour incumbent Michael Shanks is predicted to hang onto Rutherglen.
Labour are also projected to do extremely well in the east of the central belt taking seats in Lothian East, Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, Livingston, Dunfermline and Dollar, and Edinburgh North and Leith.
Douglas Ross’s Tories would be down to just one MP in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale.
The LibDems are predicted to increase their 2019 total of three seats in Scotland to five. They would win North East Fife, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Orkney and Shetland, Edinburgh West, and Mid Dunbartonshire according to the study.
The figures take account of the new boundaries.
In a separate Scotland-only Norstat poll for The Sunday Times, Labour are projected to hold a four-point lead over the SNP.
Norstat interviewed 1050 people in Scotland aged 16 and older between June 11 and 14.
The data showed that 34% of those polled would vote Labour while 30% would vote SNP – a 1% increase on the previous poll.
Elsewhere in the Survation study, the LibDems are set to take 56 seats across the UK which means, by the skin of their teeth, the Tories would still be the main opposition in the House of Commons.
The survey of 22,000 people was conducted between May 31 and June 13, during which period Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK.
Farage’s party are forecast to take seven seats in this poll which also suggests he will win in Clacton narrowly by 31% to 29% over Conservative Giles Watling.
According to the study, Labour are set to win a host of seats for the first time including Tatton in Cheshire, which was held by ex-chancellor George Osborne between 2001 and 2017.
Under the first-past-the-post system, the poll suggests Labour is set to win 70% of the seats (456) in the new parliament with just 40% of the total vote.
Meanwhile, the LibDems are projected to fall short of their total vote last time but because their support is more concentrated than 2019 in seats they can win, they are on course to win five times as many seats.
