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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Larry Elliott Economics editor

How will the Israel-Hamas war affect oil prices and the global economy?

Hamas Oil Israel Economy Bjarne Schieldrop OPEC the Middle East
The sun sets behind an oil pump in oilfields of Sakhir, Bahrain.
One rule of thumb of geopolitics is that recessions are sparked by a sharp jump in oil prices, and the cost of crude is sensitive to events in the Middle East. Photograph: Hasan Jamali/AP

Warning bells went off in financial markets the instant the extent of the deadly Hamas attack on Israel became apparent – and it is easy to see why.

One of the rules of thumb of geopolitics is that recessions are sparked by a sharp jump in oil prices, and the cost of crude is sensitive to events in the Middle East.

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