It’s currently anyone’s guess as to who will win the 2024 United States Presidential election, and while we Aussies may not be voting for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris ourselves, the question remains: How would their presidencies impact Australia?
As millions of Americans cast their say in one of the closest presidential elections ever, we Aussies are watching on with concern for what their decision could mean for our nation, the world, and the future of democracy.
While nobody truly can predict who the winner will be, or when we’ll even know the result, we can still speculate on how Trump or Harris would affect Australia if they win the election.
Associate Professor of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney David Smith warned that Australians can expect either a “continuity” of the Joe Biden presidency on one hand… and an increase in “brash and populist” politics on the other.
And with that gloomy introduction complete, let’s dive in and explore how a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency might impact Australia.
How will Australia be affected if Donald Trump is president?
Impacts on our local politics
First and foremost, a win for the Republicans in this election could result in a change to the election strategies used by Australian politicians.
It’s no secret that Trump plays from a wickedly different rulebook to the rest of the world’s politicians, which is what has given him such an infamous reputation.
Even by Trump standards, his 2024 campaign has been even more oppositional toward the “enemy within” — with ads and messaging that is heavily gendered, anti-migrant, and even calls for the imprisonment of his opponents.
Trump to Bartiromo on what worries him about election day: "I think the bigger problem is the enemy from within … sick people, radical left lunatics. And it should be easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military." pic.twitter.com/twRsilNJnz
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 13, 2024
It’s a brutal campaign that creates animosity, division, and pain.
And yet, if it works in America, that could be a green light for Aussie politicians (who I won’t name because they’ll sue me) to try the same nasty tricks.
“If Trump wins this election, I think that the conservative side of Australian politics will take that as a signal about the kind of politics that they should be pursuing,” said Smith.
“That’s a politics that is more populist, is more brash, is more explicitly targeted at male voters, and is possibly a lot harsher on issues such as immigration.”
In short: not great! What about how Trump will affect our economy?
Impacts on our economy
If this campaign and his previous term taught us anything, it’s that Trump lurves his tariffs. Even if he doesn’t actually get how they work.
The Art Of The Deal author has boasted constantly that he will bring down the income tax for Americans by putting costly tariffs on countries trading with the US.
Sure, every economist and their dog say it’s a ridiculous plan that will only result in other countries pushing the cost onto the consumer, but that’s not stopping DJT.
Q: What do you say to people who say your tariff plan will crush the middle class?
— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) November 2, 2024
Trump: Stupid people say that
(Top economists say that) pic.twitter.com/ByhoYuQgef
Unfortunately for Australia, which is dependent on global free trade, this is really bad news.
“Australia being a a relatively small open economy compared to the United States, tends to benefit a lot more from free trade than the US does,” Smith said.
“If Trump starts a global trade war… that probably wouldn’t be good for Australia.”
In his previous term, Trump lavished support onto American allies in the Middle East — Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — and was borderline hostile toward the traditional NATO and East Asian allies like South Korea and Japan.
However, in classic Australian fashion, our low-expectations low-effort nation was saved from his scorn by not being seen as very important to him. For better or for worse!
“That’s something that protects Australia a bit during a Trump administration, the fact that we don’t attract his attention very much,” said Smith.
But how could this affect the sweet, sweet romance between Australia and the US?
Impact on Australia’s relationship with America
Historically, Australia is very buddy-buddy with the US. And fortunately for that relationship, former PM Scott Morrison was more than happy to suck up to Trump back in his day (as cringe-inducing as that was).
However, over the last four years of Biden’s presidency, notable Aussie figures have had public spats with Trump, including ambassador and former PM Kevin Rudd who traded verbal blows with him earlier this year.
Even with Rudd’s efforts to heal this relationship, Smith doesn’t expect Trump to be the kind of person to hold it against Australia.
“If Trump refused to work with everybody who had ever said anything bad about him, he wouldn’t be working with anyone, including his current vice presidential candidate,” said Smith.
“Australian governments on both sides of politics tend to regard the US Alliance as so important that they don’t let differences like that disrupt the relationship.”
@pedestriantv Election Day is going to be tight, but here's what to look for to see if we can expect a Trump or Harris win. Strap in, folks. 🫡 #uselection #uselection2024 #uselectionresults ♬ original sound – PEDESTRIAN.TV
While this would mean Aussie political figures might refrain from criticising Trump in order to get what they want from him, ultimately Australia “doesn’t matter very much” to him.
“Trump’s focus in international relations is really other major powers. It’s China and it’s Russia and it’s some of the bigger European and East Asian countries,” Smith explained.
“Australia doesn’t factor very much into it.”
How will Australia be affected if Kamala Harris is president?
Impacts on our local politics
In general, Australians can expect a Kamala Harris presidency to be a “continuity” of the Biden administration, according to David Smith.
“I don’t think that we would expect very much to change. Harris would keep a lot of the same personnel that Biden had,” he said.
“So the relationship would be very stable.”
As a polar opposite result to Trump winning the 2024 US election, if Harris comes out on top this could mean that Australian politics, particularly populist conservative figures, are forced to change their strategies.
“If Harris wins, that could be a real signal that we are just not in an era anymore where you can alienate female voters in large numbers and win,” said Smith.
“People are getting a bit exhausted with this kind of brash and populist style of politics.”
This election is more than just a choice between two parties and two candidates.
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 29, 2024
It is a choice between a country rooted in freedom for every American—or ruled by chaos and division.
Smith also pointed out that the Harris campaign has been directed at Republicans and conservatives who don’t want to vote for four more years of Trump, with a message that America needs to turn a page on this divisive era of politics.
So while a Harris win probably won’t sway Australia’s political parties toward more progressive policies, it could prompt Labour to take up a new messaging against division and culture wars in the upcoming Australian federal election.
Impacts on our economy
Unlike Trump, Harris’ plans to save the American economy from the inflation and cost of living crisis include plans that would not impose any larger impacts on the global economy.
That said, if we go back to Trump’s first term when he set tariffs on China, these have remained in place and have not been removed.
“Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have, to some extent, embraced Trump’s tariffs on China and the trade measures against China,” Smith explained.
“But that’s been going for four years now, and I don’t think they would be looking at doing that to the rest of the world.”
Additionally, the infamously expensive AUKUS submarine trade deal between Australia, the US, and the UK was signed by the Biden administration.
While there were some suspicions Trump would shake that deal up, it is expected that Harris would make no changes to this arrangement, given how it’ll benefit the US to the tune of $360 billion. RIP.
As for Australia’s ongoing relationship with the US, there’s no reason to expect any major changes on that front either!
So thats’s how either Donald Trump and Kamala Harris becoming president would impact Australia.
Either our politicians go further right, we have a global trade war, and four years of sucking up to a convicted felon. Or, more of the same as the last four years.
Lord, please let Moo Deng have been wrong.
Lead Image: Getty
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