Anyone wondering what life would be like in a 21st-century world led by China need look no further than Beijing’s self-serving, two-faced approach to the Israel-Hamas war.
Claiming to be neutral and even-handed, President Xi Jinping supports a ceasefire. Yet he refuses to condemn Hamas for its 7 October atrocities and criticises Israel. He knows a ceasefire would benefit Hamas – but also that it’s a crowdpleaser in the countries of the global south.
What really interests Xi is how Israel’s relentless assault on Gaza is making its US ally look weak and guilty by association in the eyes of the world while dividing the western democracies, alienating Arab states and discrediting the international rules-based order he hopes to replace.
Xi’s priority is not saving civilian lives. It’s not a free Palestine, a secure Israel or a lasting peace. It’s how to use the crisis to advance China’s global ascendancy.
“Xi’s position on Gaza is identical to his stance on Ukraine,” wrote China analyst Michael Schuman . “There, too, Beijing has asserted principled neutrality and even launched a peace mission, while at the same time deepening ties to Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. Beijing seeks to exploit both of these crises in order to undermine the US and promote its own global leadership.”
Before war erupted, China was actively poaching on America’s Middle East turf. In April it offered to broker an Israel-Palestine deal, then feted Palestine’s president, Mahmoud Abbas, in Beijing. This followed successful Chinese mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But since 7 October, Xi has sat back, doing little to help, looking for advantage.
While US president Joe Biden, European leaders and the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, rushed to the region, Xi stayed away, as has his foreign minister. China’s contributions to UN debates about a ceasefire are primarily aimed at isolating Washington. Expect more of the same as it chairs the security council this month.
Xi appears to be coordinating closely with Putin in line with their “no limits” friendship pact. Russia, too, is exploiting western disarray over the war, noisily alleging double standards. It claims the US deplores civilian casualties in Ukraine but tolerates them in Palestine.
Russia also claims to be neutral. Yet it entertained a senior Hamas delegation in Moscow last month. Ostensibly the talks were about hostages. The visit gave an undeserved boost to Hamas, whose egregious acts of terrorism have destroyed any legitimacy it may once have claimed. The group said it “highly valued Putin’s position and the efforts of Russian diplomacy”.
Russia is allied to Iran, Hamas’s benefactor. Iran supplies arms to Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and to Russia, for use in Ukraine. For Moscow, horror in the Levant is a welcome distraction from that catastrophic quagmire.
What rightwingers term the new “axis of evil” – China, Russia and Iran – is turning the Gaza battle into an online world war, using state media and social networking platforms to boost Hamas and denigrate Israel and the US.
“The deluge of online propaganda and disinformation is larger than anything seen before,” the New York Times reported, quoting officials and independent researchers.
The current western consensus that Xi, despite pressing domestic economic problems, will not make a move on Taiwan while the US is preoccupied with Israel and Ukraine seems a tad complacent. If accurate, it may simply be because China’s military is not yet ready to mount such an operation.
The potential for accidentally on purpose clashes remains huge, particularly over South China Sea flashpoints.
In a little-reported demarche late last month prompted by Chinese maritime provocations around Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef in the Spratly Islands, Biden warned Xi that if he attacked the Philippines, the US would be treaty-bound to respond militarily.
At roughly the same time, a Chinese fighter jet flew within an eye-watering three metres (10ft) of a US B-52 nuclear-capable bomber patrolling the area.
Xi says it is China’s destiny to build “a shared future for mankind”. But it’s hard to see how he squares blatant efforts to stir the Gaza pot, aggressive regional expansionism and support for Russia’s Ukraine blitz with his “global security initiative” (GSI) – his 2022 blueprint for a China-led world order.
His six GSI principles include “respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries” and “peacefully resolving disputes through dialogue”.
Xi will get a chance to explain if, as expected, he meets Biden at the Asia-Pacific summit in San Francisco this week. Always troubled US-China ties are fraying after the spy balloon furore and escalating tit-for-tat sanctions. The developing superpower struggle over who knows best for Gaza, the Middle East and the global order forms the tense backdrop to these talks.
A procession of western politicians has traipsed to Beijing in recent months, attempting to halt a slide into confrontation as they debate whether China, despite shared trade, health and climate priorities, is a competitor, threat or outright enemy.
Yet it’s still unclear which way Xi – a remote, dictatorial, increasingly Stalin-like figure, more grizzly bear than Winnie-the-Pooh – will jump.
“Xi’s fundamental problem is that he needs a more stable relationship with the western world to revitalise a flagging economy and [restore] national fortunes after several stumbling years,” wrote Foreign Policy’s James Palmer. “But as domestic discontent and anger grows, he also needs a scapegoat for all China’s problems – the US.”
When it comes to apportioning blame for the Israel-Hamas war, “the US is, as usual, China’s real target”, Schuman suggested.
“Beijing wants to pin responsibility for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Washington and [demonstrate] the US and Europe have significantly weakened their capacity to uphold the existing world order.”
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