Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly pledged to carry out the "largest deportation operation" in American history if he returns to the White House as he ramps up violent rhetoric against immigrants throughout his campaign. But following those plans, experts say, could actually significantly damage another central issue to his reelection bid— the economy.
Trump baselessly claims that 15 to 20 million undocumented immigrants have come to the U.S. illegally, despite official figures estimating the number is at 11 million. He has promised that because of this, he will begin deporting migrants on Day 1 of his second term.
But doing so could be extremely costly and even damaging for the economy, which he says he can handle better than anyone and one of the issues voters trust him the most.
A 2015 study by the American Action Forum— a self-described "center-right" economic think tank— estimated that it would cost $18,214 to identify, detain, transport, process, hold, and ultimately expel each migrant. Adjusted for inflation today, that would amount to $24,094 per person, according to a new report by El Pais.
If there are an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants currently in the U.S., that brings the total to $265 billion. But if Trump's estimate of 20 million undocumented immigrants is taken, the cost would be around $481 billion.
To put it into perspective, those figures would be much more expensive than the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Patrol's (CBP) combined budget of nearly $30 billion in 2024.
Those estimations from El Pais only refers to the cost of deportation and does not take into account the cost of running a program to find immigrants, transport them to the border, and process them in internment camps, which would have to be built. This plan would also entail incorporating members of local police forces, the National Guard and even the military to deportation efforts, which is not allowed under current regulations, and if it were, would drive up that cost even more.
The exorbitant amount of money used for mass deportations alone would also likely have ripple effects on the rest of the economy, as it would initially affect the labor market and wages, and then move on to GDP and inflation.
The National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that there are 7.1 million undocumented migrant workers in the United States, representing 4.5% of the country's workforce. If Trump expels them all, the most affected sectors would be construction, with 1.5 million fewer workers; hospitality, which would lose 1.1 million workers; the service sector, with another million employees lost; and manufacturing, which would lose 714,000 workers.
This could also reignite inflation, the news outlet suggests. Labor costs account for, on average, about 60% of business expenses, and they rise when employers have to replace large numbers of workers.
As the political and economic costs of a mass deportation plan come to light, immigration officers argue it is highly unrealistic.
"On a practical level, it will be nearly impossible for (Trump) to do the things he's talking about, even if he could bring in the military," said John Sandweg, a senior Homeland Security Department official in the Obama administration.
But despite evidence, Trump continues to claim these plans would strongly benefit the country.
"Under the Trump administration, if you come in illegally, you were apprehended immediately and you were deported," Trump said at a rally back in July. "That's why, to keep our family safe, the Republican platform promises to launch the largest deportation operation in the history of our country."
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