Unless the polls are wildly inaccurate, the Conservative party is heading towards a catastrophic defeat in the coming election.
All across the rich world, voters are angry at their governments – they blame politicians for a burst of inflation that happened almost everywhere and is now subsiding almost everywhere, including in the UK. But the Conservatives deserve defeat more than most: they took power 14 years ago promising to deliver responsible policies and economic success. Instead they have presided over economic stagnation and a collapse in public services.
Why has Conservative governance gone so badly? It is natural to blame Brexit, which did indeed increase trade frictions and therefore surely had a negative effect on British real income. However, Brexit has not had the disastrous effects some predicted, and has somewhat perversely led to a rise rather than a fall in immigration, especially of the highly skilled.
