Submerged by news of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, French presidential election candidates have been scrambling to readjust their election promises.
For nearly two weeks, the rhetoric of French presidential candidates has changed in nature because of the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe.
With just over one month to go before the first round of elections on 10 April, there are fears that the democratic process will be side-lined, giving incumbent President Emmanuel Macron a substantial advantage.
As 2021 drew to a close, the fifth wave of Covid-19 in France had raised fears of a presidential campaign overshadowed by health restrictions.
Now in March, it's the war in Ukraine that has permeated French national politics.
Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the war has dominated the news. So much so that the faces of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky have become more familiar to the French electorate than many of the candidates.
The conflict has relegated the presidential hustings to the back of the media cycle.
Rallies reorganised, attitudes to Putin rethought
For the past fortnight, all the campaigns have been readjusting.
National Rally leader Marine Le Pen postponed a crucial election special interview with the France 2 television station by one week.
It had initially been scheduled for 24 February, the day of the Russian invasion.
Green candidate Yannick Jadot, cancelled his attendance at the "Forum of Possibilities" scheduled for Friday 25 February in the central French city of Clermont-Ferrand.
Political rallies have also changed in nature. Paris mayor and Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo transformed a rally in Bordeaux into an event in support of the Ukrainian people on 27 February.
Far-left contender Jean-Luc Mélenchon did the same thing with his "meeting for peace" in Lyon on Sunday.
Anne Hidalgo : "Jean-Luc Mélenchon est devenu l'allié et le soutien de Vladimir Poutine" - L'Express https://t.co/bdCfeXZzJ3
— Albert Karl (@AlbertKarl_) March 1, 2022
Change of tone on the campaign trail
As the countdown to the first round begins, everyone is trying to adapt to the new geopolitical situation, with one objective: find the right tone so as not to appear out of step with current events, but without letting precious days on the campaign trail slip away.
The candidates' voices are more sober and each word is weighed, as if the war in Ukraine had drawn a veil over the usual intensity of a presidential campaign.
That doesn't mean the arguments between candidates have disappeared, they have simply moved to the international arena.
This Monday, Hidalgo ripped into Mélenchon in an interview with L'Express magazine, accusing her rival of having "become the ally and supporter of Vladimir Putin". Mélenchon's entourage have denounced the remarks as defamatory.
On the left-wing of French politics, the Ukrainian conflict has exposed clear divisions when it comes to diplomatic affairs.
This is also the case on the right and the far-right: for the past ten days, centre-right candidate Valérie Pécresse has been attacking the far-right Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour over their links with Vladimir Putin.
However, the one candidate who has escaped the full on attacks of his rivals on the Russian invasion is Emmanuel Macron.
- Macron responds 'without weakness' to Russia's 'act of war'
- Macron announces he will run for second term, opponents ready for debate
The incumbent, who officially declared his candidacy for a second term on Thursday evening, was expected to be in the firing line by all his rivals, as the Omicron variant of Covid-19 ripped through the country in the depths of winter.
However, the war in Ukraine has forced his opponents to put aside their most acerbic criticisms.
In terms of foreign policy, it could be seen as counterproductive to criticise a head of state who has been attempting to end the Ukraine conflict through international diplomacy.
Crisis plays in Macron's favour
One centre-right senator, Bruno Retailleau from the conservative Les Republicains party, says he fears a knee-jerk "rally around the flag effect".
Theorised in the United States in the 1970s, the premise puts forward the idea of increased support for an incumbent government in times of war or major crisis.
The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020 led to a clear increase in Macron's popularity.
Two years on, the Ukrainian crisis has taken centre-stage, and opponents are watching for the same momentum that appeared in the polls by mid-February, where the President's popularity ratings started to recede.
Another consequence of the war in Ukraine is that Macron has not yet put forward a detailed programme or concrete measures for his second mandate.
So without a real political project five weeks before the 10 April deadline, how will the president conduct his re-election campaign?
According to Macron's entourage, he doesn't plan to participate in pre-election debates.
This, however, raises fears that as a "full time president" in a time of crisis, he will only be a "part-time" candidate who will be difficult to engage.
