The 2023 Rugby World Cup is now less than four months away, with the world's best teams naming their provisional squads as anticipation builds ahead of the long-awaited tournament.
Warren Gatland will lead Wales to a fourth global tournament and will be looking to defy the odds to repeat his previous successes, which saw his side reach semi-finals in 2011 and 2019, as well as a quarter-final in 2015. After a dismal Six Nations and a miserable autumn campaign before it, Gatland's men will be up against it but could still venture deep into the competition due to the pecularity surrounding the draw for this year's tournament.
The Wales boss named his preliminary 54-man training squad for the World Cup earlier this month, with the returning Cory Hill and surprise names including Ospreys' Cai Evans and former England international Henry Thomas all involved. However, there was no room for Joe Hawkins, deemed ineligible to play for his country following his summer move to Exeter Chiefs, nor the likes of Wyn Jones, Leon Brown and Bradley Roberts.
Whoever makes the final squad, there will be plenty of Welsh talent boarding the plane to France in September, but Gatland will by buoyed further by the unusual advantage his side have inadvertedly been given ahead of the tournament.
The tournament draw, conducted a year after the last World Cup in Japan, saw seedings decided on the world rankings as they were at the start of 2020. However, with the global standings shifting considerably since then, the competition has been left lopsided, with one side stacked with the world's top teams and the other occupied by those further down the global rankings.
The situation means that three of the world's top five sides can't make it past the quarter-final stage, with France, Ireland, New Zealand and reigning champions South Africa among those facing an early exit. However, it also means that Wales, as well as rivals England, face a far easier route in the competition and could reach the semi-finals without facing a top five team.
First, however, Gatland's side must make it out of a pool stage full of potential banana skins. If they can do that, here's how the World Cup could play out for Wales and their rivals.
Who will Wales play at the 2023 Rugby World Cup?
Wales' opponents in Pool C are Australia (currently ranked seventh in the world), Fiji (13th), Georgia (11th) and Portugal (16th). Their Rugby World Cup campaign gets underway in a potentially tricky clash against the Fijians on September 10, before they face Portugal six days later. Warren Gatland's side then face their toughest task as they take on Australia, the only team ranked above them, on September 24 before rounding off their pool stage matches against Georgia on October 7.
On paper, Wales, who are currently ranked ninth in the world, have more than enough quality to finish in the top two and qualify for the knockout stages, while they could even mount a challenge to top the pile. However, despite his strong track record at major tournaments, Gatland will also be wary of the threat his side's opponents carry.
His predecessor Wayne Pivac oversaw crushing defeats to both Australia and Georgia in last year's catastrophic Autumn campaign that led to his dismissal at Wales boss. After being thumped by New Zealand and getting the better of Argentina, Wales were beaten at home to Georgia in a historic first defeat, before blowing a 21-point lead to lose 34-39 to the Wallabies a week later.
Elsewhere in the pool stages, England face nobody ranked higher than eighth in the world, as they face Japan (10th), Argentina (8th), Samoa (12th) and Chile, who are currently 22nd in the global standings. While Pool A is more than likely to be contested between France and New Zealand, Italy could spring another surprise and finish in the top two, while Pool B is this year's clear Group of Death, with three of the world's top five teams - Ireland, South Africa and Scotland - all facing each other.
Here are the pools in full:
Pool A: New Zealand, France, Italy, Uruguay, Namibia
Pool B: South Africa, Ireland, Scotland, Tonga, Romania
Pool C: Wales, Australia, Fiji, Georgia, Portugal
Pool D: England, Japan, Argentina, Samoa, Chile
Who plays who in the quarter-finals?
You'd expect to see all the usual suspects in the knockout stages but the controversial nature of the draw for this year's tournament means things could be very different this time around. The 2023 draw was made back in December 2020, just over a year on from the tournament in Japan, with seedings decided on what the world rankings were at the start of 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
At that time, the new world champions South Africa topped the standings, followed by New Zealand, England and reigning Grand Slam champions Wales in fourth place to make up the top seeds. However, more than three years on, the top teams in the world now look incredibly, different, with Ireland and France now topping the pile.
The All Blacks and Springboks are still in the mix, ranking third and fourth respectively, but England have slipped to sixth in the world while Wales have come close to falling out of the top 10. Scotland, meanwhile, are in the top five after beating both Wales and England during this year's Six Nations.
The competition, therefore, has been left lopsided, with one side of the draw loaded with highly-ranked teams and the other missing any team from inside the world's top five. With Ireland, South Africa and Scotland in Pool B, one of those sides will be eliminated at the pool stage, while the other two will meet the two top teams in Pool A, likely to be France and New Zealand. All of this means that, as it stands, three of the world's top five teams can't even make it past the first knockout stage.
In the quarter-finals themselves, tournament favourites France are likely to face reigning world champions South Africa, with Ireland expected to top their group to set up another blockbuster clash against the All Blacks. On the other side of the draw, Wales could expect to face either Japan or Argentina if they top Pool C ahead of Wallabies, who would likely play England. However, a meeting with Steve Borthwick's side would seem inevitable if Gatland's men finished second in their group.
Who is expected to win the Rugby World Cup?
With two of the likely quarter-final clashes making realistic finals in any other tournament, the competition is expected to be wide open with some unlikely sides still in the mix in the latter stages.
It's anyone's guess who will make it through the blockbuster side of the quarter-final draw. On the other side, Wales could well make it to the semi-finals against the odds given the draw.
When it comes to the overall winner, as far as the bookies are concerned, Les Bleus are the hot favourites to go all the way and triumph on home soil. They're 3/1 to become world champions and closely followed by New Zealand (10/3).
World number one side Ireland are only third favourites, perhaps given their previous World Cup failures (they haven't got past the last eight) at 9/2. South Africa (5/1) are also in with a chance of defending their title, while England (10/1) and Australia (11/1) are both just about in the mix with bookmakers.
Wales, however, are rank 35/1 outsiders to win the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Those odds put them behind Argentina (33/1) but just ahead of Scotland (40/1), who face a huge challenge not to be knocked out at the Pool stage, according to bookmakers.
The Wales World Cup training squad in full:
Forwards (31)
Rhys Carre (Cardiff Rugby – 20 caps), Corey Domachowski (Cardiff Rugby – uncapped), Kemsley Mathias (Scarlets – uncapped), Nicky Smith (Ospreys – 42 caps), Gareth Thomas (Ospreys – 21 caps), Eliott Dee (Dragons – 41 caps), Ryan Elias (Scarlets – 33 caps), Dewi Lake (Ospreys – 8 caps), Ken Owens (Scarlets – 91 caps), Keiron Assiratti (Cardiff Rugby – uncapped), Tomas Francis (Ospreys – 71 caps), Will Davies-King (Cardiff Rugby – uncapped), Dillon Lewis (Cardiff Rugby – 50 caps), Henry Thomas (Montpellier – uncapped), Adam Beard (Ospreys – 46 caps), Ben Carter (Dragons – 9 caps), Rhys Davies (Ospreys – 2 caps), Cory Hill (Yokohama Canon Eagles – 32 caps), Dafydd Jenkins (Exeter Chiefs – 6 cap), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys – 157 caps), Will Rowlands (Dragons – 23 caps), Christ Tshiunza (Exeter Chiefs – 5 caps), Teddy Williams (Cardiff Rugby – uncapped), Taine Basham (Dragons – 11 caps), Taulupe Faletau (Cardiff Rugby – 100 caps), Dan Lydiate (Ospreys – 68 caps), Josh Macleod (Scarlets – 2 caps), Jac Morgan (Ospreys – 9 caps), Tommy Reffell (Leicester Tigers – 9 caps), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys – 93 caps), Aaron Wainwright (Dragons – 37 caps)
Backs (23)
Gareth Davies (Scarlets – 67 caps), Kieran Hardy (Scarlets – 17 caps), Rhys Webb (Ospreys – 40 caps), Tomos Williams (Cardiff Rugby – 45 caps), Gareth Anscombe (Ospreys – 35 caps), Dan Biggar (Toulon – 107 caps), Sam Costelow (Scarlets – 2 caps), Owen Williams (Ospreys – 7 caps), Mason Grady (Cardiff Rugby – 2 caps), Max Llewellyn (Cardiff Rugby – uncapped), George North (Ospreys – 113 caps), Joe Roberts (Scarlets – uncapped), Nick Tompkins (Saracens – 27 caps), Johnny Williams (Scarlets – 5 caps), Keiran Williams (Ospreys – uncapped), Josh Adams (Cardiff Rugby – 49 caps), Alex Cuthbert (Ospreys – 57 caps), Rio Dyer (Dragons – 7 caps), Cai Evans (Ospreys – uncapped), Leigh Halfpenny (Scarlets – 99 caps), Louis Rees-Zammit (Gloucester Rugby – 25 caps), Tom Rogers (Scarlets – 2 caps), Liam Williams (Cardiff Rugby – 84 caps)
READ NEXT:
