LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers fell by the wayside in the Western Conference Finals, one series after defeating Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. On the other side of the bracket, the Boston Celtics fell short in the Eastern Conference Finals.
That leaves the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat in the 2023 NBA Finals.
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That may not be ideal for the NBA -- And it could have an effect, even on the court.
Ratings is a leading bargaining chip for the NBA when it comes to negotiating its media rights deal, which is a major driver of the league’s revenue. The NBA’s current media rights deal -- which pays about $2.7 billion a year from Disney (DIS) and Warner Bros. (WBD) -- expires after the 2024-25 NBA season.
The NBA’s previous deal was worth $930 million per year, and that additional pump contributed to a 32% salary cap increase per team in the summer of 2016 which allowed the Warriors to absorb Kevin Durant and effectively en route to two NBA titles.
However, the NBA has already protected itself from that happening again in its latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, ensuring salary cap spikes can only be as high as 10%. Still, the added money could play a factor in player salaries.
When the NBA signed the $930 million per year deal, it was coming off its lowest-rated NBA Finals ever at that point. And it was between two relatively small markets -- the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers.
In 2014, when the league signed it’s current deal, it was coming off a high with James anchoring the league during his time with, coincidentally, the Miami Heat.
This year, the NBA has already achieved some record ratings for the 2023 NBA postseason. However, Sportico’s Lev Akabas showed that the Top 10 most watched games featured at least one of the Celtics, Lakers and Warriors, three of the league’s six most popular teams, two of which roster Curry and James, the NBA’s two most popular players.
The Heat are the seventh most popular NBA team in YouGov’s database, but the Nuggets are in the middle of the pack. And two team's stars, Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jokic, rank 17th and 31st, respectively.
It remains to be seen what will be on the table come bargaining time -- and regardless of the NBA Finals ratings, the league already has the advantage of plenty of services like Amazon and Apple looking at sports as a way to bolster their platforms. But given the history, fans would be remiss to think the ratings don’t have at least some type of effect on the future of the league.
